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Anonymous A started this discussion 6 years ago#96,981
A place, even a city, gets completely locked down once coronavirus is there fucking shit up. Yet meanwhile it's like we know it's coming, we just really fancy a lock down. We really want to lock places down rather close down borders for a while. It's so silly, why is the world so silly?
Close the borders, no travel between countries. It's what we'll do and command once things are terrible enough except then the contagion is already taken hold everywhere. That's what's so stupid here, the point of closing borders is prevention, not some panicky "oh shit" moment but that's how things are playing.
Anonymous E joined in and replied with this 6 years ago, 44 seconds later, 12 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,771
@previous (A)
You must know better than expert pandemiologists.
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 6 years ago, 5 minutes later, 12 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,774
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU replied with this 6 years ago, 4 minutes later, 12 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,785
@1,094,770 (A)
By the time they even learned about the scope of the disease it was already too late to close the borders. People who had the disease and were contagious but asymptomatic, or thought they only had the regular flu had already taken flights to many countries around the world. It also would have induced mass panic and made quarantining even trickier to pull off.
dreamworks replied with this 6 years ago, 8 minutes later, 12 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,787
That's my point, don't make it too late next time. If you think the panic is bad now, wait until it's everywhere or wait until it gets really bad in Iran.
Anonymous A (OP) double-posted this 6 years ago, 31 seconds later, 13 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,794
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU replied with this 6 years ago, 8 minutes later, 13 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,803
@1,094,788 (dreamworks)
Yes thank you. @1,094,793 (A)
There is no stopping it even if China shut its borders the day they realized there was a pandemic because infected people had already been flying out of the country for weeks by that point.
dreamworks replied with this 6 years ago, 3 minutes later, 13 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,813
@1,094,793 (A)
You know how fucked the world would be if China closed its borders right lol
Anonymous I joined in and replied with this 6 years ago, 1 minute later, 13 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,815
@1,094,803 (Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU)
I know what you mean, it's why recycling plastic is a waste of time because there is already tons of it in the ocean.
Anonymous I double-posted this 6 years ago, 2 minutes later, 13 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,817
@1,094,813 (dreamworks)
A global shortage of Nikes and iPhones would raise the price of them... Everyone would be fucked!
Anonymous F replied with this 6 years ago, 1 minute later, 13 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,818
@1,094,815 (I)
Oh cool, which nutso conspiracy site did you see that on?
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU replied with this 6 years ago, 1 minute later, 13 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,820
@1,094,815 (I)
Like all things it's a cost-benefit analysis. China completely shutting down travel would very likely trigger a global recession and it's unclear how many people would actually be saved by doing that, given the fact that the disease was already present across the globe when the virus became a big deal to the chinese government.
(Edited 12 seconds later.)
Anonymous H replied with this 6 years ago, 34 seconds later, 13 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,821
@1,094,815 (I)
That’s not exactly an invitation to dump more plastic shit into the oceans.
Anonymous I replied with this 6 years ago, 6 seconds later, 13 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,822
Anonymous J joined in and replied with this 6 years ago, 1 minute later, 13 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,824
@OP
Go wash some dishes or clean the gas station bathroom you little useless urchin
Anonymous I replied with this 6 years ago, 1 minute later, 13 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,827
@1,094,821 (H)
Closing the borders is like not dumping plastic into the ocean. Is it going to make a difference, and how much do people care about the cost, etc.
Anonymous H replied with this 6 years ago, 3 minutes later, 13 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,832
@previous (I) > That feel when you openly admitted to being a litter bug.
Anonymous I replied with this 6 years ago, 2 minutes later, 13 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,834
Anonymous F replied with this 6 years ago, 5 minutes later, 14 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,855
@1,094,834 (I)
How many pictures do you have of this little girl?
dreamworks replied with this 6 years ago, 2 hours later, 17 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,876
@1,094,817 (I)
Also medicine and medical equipments, furniture, machinery, cars, bikes, some food items, plastic, steel and who knows what else. There aren't enough factories outside of China to replace Chinese ones.
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 6 years ago, 4 hours later, 21 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,964
Will be 10 times worse if the workers are sick or dead.
dreamworks replied with this 6 years ago, 27 minutes later, 22 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,969
@previous (A)
Closing the borders wouldn't prevent that though.
Anonymous I replied with this 6 years ago, 2 minutes later, 22 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,970
@1,094,966 (A)
No way dude, the Chinese make furniture and for a while you won't be able to buy the couch you like in the showroom! It won't be available for delivery! You can go and sit on it and not be able to buy it immediately in some sort of dystopian nightmare....
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 6 years ago, 5 minutes later, 22 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,973
They are far more likely to contain it if it isn't around in the world. Plus we are still less fucked if we manage to not get the virus, if we manage to contain it, something that's much much easier by not allowing travel.
Not that dangerous, are you serious? There's so many people that gets seriously ill that they need intensive care. We can't tell the real death rate because there's concern about the honesty of infected countries like Iran especially, the US government thinks they aren't being truthful. It also does happen that it kills young people.
They say about 20% of people who get it need intensive care. Can you imagine how much shit will hit the fan when the poorer countries get it, the countries with basically no ability to provide such care? And why did it all happen? Well it seems the more wealthier nations didn't want to panic the economy.
dreamworks replied with this 6 years ago, 6 minutes later, 22 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,977
@previous (A)
Where did you read that about 20% needing ic? WHO says 1 in 6 require treatment, and around 80% recover without
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 6 years ago, 44 minutes later, 23 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,094,986
I'm having a hard time finding that source but just consider this, in wuhan the fatality rate is 5%. 4.9 to be more specific. 15% of the people who get admitted to a hospital bed, they end up dying. The Chinese government said that the reason it was so high in wuhan was that the care system is overwhelmed or rather "suffering shortages".
Now given that poorer countries already have a lot of people who are not tip top in terms of health, and that they have no access to medical care, how much higher do you think the death rate will be in those countries? Is it such a big jump to say that it's going to be 20%?
Anonymous K joined in and replied with this 6 years ago, 33 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#1,094,989
@previous (A) > I'm having a hard time finding that source but just consider this, in wuhan the fatality rate is 5%. 4.9 to be more specific.
Where are you getting the numbers for Wuhan if you can't find a source? Where did those numbers come from?
> 15% of the people who get admitted to a hospital bed, they end up dying.
Are you trying to distinguish cases recorded as "serious" or "critical" or both? Where is that death rate reported?
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 6 years ago, 31 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#1,094,994
It's what I've been reading but awkwardly I can't find it. Now, i guess the intensive care rate i talked about was actually both serious and critical put together:
The 4.9% rate in Wuhan is from a press conference the Chinese National Health Committee (NHC) held on Feb. 4th, 2020.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Jiao Yahui says: (English version courtesy of Google Translate)
In addition, the number of deaths in Wuhan is 313, accounting for 74% of the national deaths. The fatality rate in Wuhan is 4.9%. The fatality rates in Hubei and Wuhan are higher than the national level. The fatality rate in other provinces is 0.16%.
Those numbers are from 23 days ago. That's not a current figure from Wuhan. That announcement was made one day after Huo Shen Shan hospital (the one built in 10 days) had opened.
I don't see any mention of the 15% rate in Wuhan or anywhere else. The same man did touch on why fatality rate is higher in Wuhan and had this to say:
Why the fatality rate in Wuhan is so much higher than in other provinces across the country, we also analyzed it. The early stage critically ill patients were mainly admitted to three designated hospitals. There were only 110 critical care beds in these three designated hospitals. The capacity is far from enough.
He is talking specifically about critical patients during the early stages of the outbreak. Keep in mind he is saying this on February 4th to highlight the government response to the problem and the rushed construction of new hospitals and facilities. He's not talking about an ongoing problem in the present day.
Interestingly, Dr. John Campbell's number of severe cases in that YouTube video from the 16th are a few thousand higher than the current estimate of severe and serious cases on the worldometer site. I'm not sure what's going on there.
(Edited 2 minutes later.)
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 6 years ago, 15 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#1,095,005
Well the statistics keep changing, and there's a lot of confusion as well as dishonesty. It's reasonable to also remember that you can't accurately know something about a virus in the early stages of the outbreak, it's not as simple as just looking at current statistics. However, we can see the massive response from China and we can know that not all countries will have the same capability. Like, China has a lot of people on these machines that pumps air into the lungs of patients, there's not a lot of those expensive machines around in places like Iran for example. So the outbreak will be significantly worse there.
I am also worried about how long China can keep going before they get overwhelmed.
Anonymous A (OP) double-posted this 6 years ago, 5 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#1,095,006
Says in the end that 6 of those admitted, died, and said that was about 15%.
(Edited 45 seconds later.)
Anonymous K replied with this 6 years ago, 1 hour later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#1,095,011
@previous (A) > As of Jan 22, 2020, 28 (68%) of 41 patients have been discharged and six (15%) patients have died.
That's the right number, but it's from the end of last year and from a sample size of 41. I'm not sure how representative those numbers are of the general trend. I'm still not sure what 'admitted to a hospital bed' should be taken to mean. I see that 13 of those patients required ICU placement while others were discharged.
Like you said, it's not as simple as looking at current statistics. But when citing statistics to represent or report trends it's nice to be working from current numbers and a larger data set.
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 6 years ago, 10 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#1,095,014
Yes. One things for sure though, it spreads easily and a lot of people require medical care as a result. This is a developing nation's nightmare, hell, it's even china's nightmare and they are building those famous hospitals within two weeks. A poor society is going to have a very shitty time and I can't believe the global community didn't consider that when they were worried about the economy.
(Edited 42 seconds later.)
dreamworks replied with this 6 years ago, 16 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#1,095,017
lol i knew you would just say something like that as long as it wasn't WHO. I'm just curious, in your mind, what is this virus exactly? Not dangerous yet something that has caused China to lock down cities with millions in them, geez. I guess the Chinese government is pretty stupid then isn't it?
dreamworks replied with this 6 years ago, 2 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#1,095,021
@1,095,014 (A)
Those countries can close their borders if they feel it necessary.
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 6 years ago, 34 seconds later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#1,095,023
All of them at most extreme, the three countries worst effected i suppose as the middle ground, or at the very least China. Yeh yeh, i can already hear you going on about the economy. Here's the thing though, we can ban travel or at least severely limit it and only approve the goods and cargo. This way, the effect it will have on the economy is very acceptable compared to what a pandemic will be like if it gets out of hand.
(Edited 1 minute later.)
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU replied with this 6 years ago, 3 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#1,095,031
@previous (A)
So what should countries that import food, heating fuel, etc. do for the next 6 months after closing their borders?
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 6 years ago, 3 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#1,095,032
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU replied with this 6 years ago, 8 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#1,095,033
@previous (A)
Goods and cargo are delivered by human beings. You are still going to have infection risk. It's all about striking a balance between economic disruption and infection risk because you will never be able to avoid having some amount of one or the other. Closing borders isn't some costless panacea.
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 6 years ago, 4 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#1,095,034
Yes and that's why I chose to say severely limiting it. Nobody is going to want to work or go out and buy stuff when the advice is to stay at home, in other words, it's the balance you speak of. We gambled on this virus, the odds are now totally against us, let's not keep making the same bet?
(Edited 1 minute later.)
dreamworks replied with this 6 years ago, 31 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#1,095,036
@1,095,030 (A)
China already severely limits travel
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 6 years ago, 2 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#1,095,038