Topic: Despite the actions of the CPC, the virus still spreads
Anonymous A started this discussion 6 years ago #96,649
The most fucked up shit is though that they are going to let people return to work and it's simply because globalization, the whole economic system will collapse without the Chinese workers but gosh darn it, they can't work if they are all sick.
(Edited 18 seconds later.)
Anonymous B joined in and replied with this 6 years ago, 22 minutes later[^] [v] #1,090,858
Ah yes. The magical 60,000 Chinese people without whom the global economy would collapse.
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 6 years ago, 7 minutes later, 29 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,090,859
@previous (B)
Living under a rock? They have like 50 million people under a quarantine.
Living under a rock? They have like 50 million people under a quarantine.
(Edited 15 seconds later.)
Anonymous B replied with this 6 years ago, 31 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #1,090,860
@previous (A)
China does have a large number of people under quarantine. They're helping make sure the healthy ones can get back to work like normal even though they can't leave their town or area right now. The 60,000 or so who are infected obviously can't go back to work.
China does have a large number of people under quarantine. They're helping make sure the healthy ones can get back to work like normal even though they can't leave their town or area right now. The 60,000 or so who are infected obviously can't go back to work.
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 6 years ago, 18 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #1,090,864
@previous (B)
Mhm...... There's still a highly infectious disease out there going around and about. People getting all cosy close to each other sounds like a really bad idea.
Mhm...... There's still a highly infectious disease out there going around and about. People getting all cosy close to each other sounds like a really bad idea.
Anonymous B replied with this 6 years ago, 10 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #1,090,865
@previous (A)
It sounds like they're being pretty cautious about it to start with. It'll certainly mean a slight dip in China's economy until it settles down, but I don't see where you're getting the that "the whole economic system will collapse" or what any of that has to do with globalization.
It sounds like they're being pretty cautious about it to start with. It'll certainly mean a slight dip in China's economy until it settles down, but I don't see where you're getting the that "the whole economic system will collapse" or what any of that has to do with globalization.
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 6 years ago, 9 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #1,090,866
@previous (B)
Well the way I understand it, there's a lot of things and especially factories around the globe that relies on cheap parts from China. The virus, with the quarantines (the biggest in history) has been severely disrupting the supply of those parts. They can't be too careful though and especially since the virus infections are still growing at a self sustainable rate. They don't have enough test kits, and you can have the virus for two weeks without having any symptoms. I'm saying that the infection rate is going to increase because of this ans it's so silly because perhaps it's going to have a worse effect on the economy than the quarantine.
Well the way I understand it, there's a lot of things and especially factories around the globe that relies on cheap parts from China. The virus, with the quarantines (the biggest in history) has been severely disrupting the supply of those parts. They can't be too careful though and especially since the virus infections are still growing at a self sustainable rate. They don't have enough test kits, and you can have the virus for two weeks without having any symptoms. I'm saying that the infection rate is going to increase because of this ans it's so silly because perhaps it's going to have a worse effect on the economy than the quarantine.
Anonymous B replied with this 6 years ago, 16 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #1,090,867
@previous (A)
> I'm saying that the infection rate is going to increase because of this
It's probably hard to say for sure at this point.
Even if the number of people infected where ten times what it is today and it only infected workers, that number would still only be a fraction of a percent of China's workforce. I don't know that anything is ready to collapse in the foreseeable future.
> I'm saying that the infection rate is going to increase because of this
It's probably hard to say for sure at this point.
Even if the number of people infected where ten times what it is today and it only infected workers, that number would still only be a fraction of a percent of China's workforce. I don't know that anything is ready to collapse in the foreseeable future.
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 6 years ago, 11 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,090,869
@previous (B)
It's not that hard to say at all. It's not like they are just sitting there and asking themselves if the efforts are working and then just shrugging their shoulders, it's not working is what they are saying. It's estimated that even with all their efforts, a person with the virus is still managing to infect 2 people on average, with none of the the efforts? They say it's as high as 7. You see, if you keep doubling something, it's going to get big fast.
It's not that hard to say at all. It's not like they are just sitting there and asking themselves if the efforts are working and then just shrugging their shoulders, it's not working is what they are saying. It's estimated that even with all their efforts, a person with the virus is still managing to infect 2 people on average, with none of the the efforts? They say it's as high as 7. You see, if you keep doubling something, it's going to get big fast.
(Edited 35 seconds later.)
Anonymous C joined in and replied with this 6 years ago, 44 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,090,874
virus gonna inactive soon coz it hates thee sun and humidity and shit like dat
dreamworks joined in and replied with this 6 years ago, 6 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,090,875
@1,090,867 (B)
i mean there are a lot of closed factories right now and the world relies on China for basically every product
i mean there are a lot of closed factories right now and the world relies on China for basically every product
Anonymous B replied with this 6 years ago, 11 hours later, 14 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,091,138
@1,090,869 (A)
> You see, if you keep doubling something, it's going to get big fast.
Yeah, I've been listening to people say that for a month now. It doesn't seem to describe reality though, particularly with travel limitations, screenings, heightened awareness, and quarantine restrictions in place for known infected and at risk populations. Exponential growth doesn't seem to describe what's happening at all, especially outside of China where cases are being diagnosed and isolated. For instance you can try to fit an exponential growth curve to the numbers coming out of China, but that model falls apart if you try to apply it to the first confirmed US case who arrived in Washington State a month ago (still just one case in Washington State) or Japan where they have been very careful about quarantining people and cruise ships. Even within China you would have to fit different exponential growth models to different provinces. Pretending that numbers that apply to Hubei also apply to the rest of the world isn't realistic.
You're right in that it isn't hard to make wild predictions. There's no shortage of those. It's really easy just to say that it's going to keep doubling. It's just hard to say that and actually be correct.
@previous (dreamworks)
There will be economic repercussions from down time and lost labor, I just haven't heard a good reason as to why they would be world shattering outside of hand-waving about the ubiquity of readily available products from China.
> You see, if you keep doubling something, it's going to get big fast.
Yeah, I've been listening to people say that for a month now. It doesn't seem to describe reality though, particularly with travel limitations, screenings, heightened awareness, and quarantine restrictions in place for known infected and at risk populations. Exponential growth doesn't seem to describe what's happening at all, especially outside of China where cases are being diagnosed and isolated. For instance you can try to fit an exponential growth curve to the numbers coming out of China, but that model falls apart if you try to apply it to the first confirmed US case who arrived in Washington State a month ago (still just one case in Washington State) or Japan where they have been very careful about quarantining people and cruise ships. Even within China you would have to fit different exponential growth models to different provinces. Pretending that numbers that apply to Hubei also apply to the rest of the world isn't realistic.
You're right in that it isn't hard to make wild predictions. There's no shortage of those. It's really easy just to say that it's going to keep doubling. It's just hard to say that and actually be correct.
@previous (dreamworks)
There will be economic repercussions from down time and lost labor, I just haven't heard a good reason as to why they would be world shattering outside of hand-waving about the ubiquity of readily available products from China.
(Edited 56 seconds later.)
dreamworks replied with this 6 years ago, 17 minutes later, 14 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,091,143
Anonymous B replied with this 6 years ago, 22 minutes later, 15 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,091,157
@previous (dreamworks)
There is a China though. It's not the zombie apocalypse. A few recent articles in the past couple of days at Marketwatch and the The Economist don't seem to be forecasting the death of all Chinese manufacturing. China is a big place, and not everywhere is affected as seriously as Hubei.
Some industries will take a dip: automotive manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, some technology manufacturers, and tourism of course. But I don't know if I'm ready to call it quits on the global economy because someone is forecasting fewer new cars and Apple shipping 5-10% fewer iPhones this quarter.
There is a China though. It's not the zombie apocalypse. A few recent articles in the past couple of days at Marketwatch and the The Economist don't seem to be forecasting the death of all Chinese manufacturing. China is a big place, and not everywhere is affected as seriously as Hubei.
Some industries will take a dip: automotive manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, some technology manufacturers, and tourism of course. But I don't know if I'm ready to call it quits on the global economy because someone is forecasting fewer new cars and Apple shipping 5-10% fewer iPhones this quarter.
Anonymous F joined in and replied with this 6 years ago, 1 minute later, 15 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,091,158
dreamworks replied with this 6 years ago, 5 minutes later, 15 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,091,161
@1,091,157 (B)
What do you mean some industries? What industries don't rely on continuous production and export from China? The warehouses are running empty!
What do you mean some industries? What industries don't rely on continuous production and export from China? The warehouses are running empty!
dreamworks double-posted this 6 years ago, 1 minute later, 15 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,091,166
@1,091,157 (B)
Also there are loads of articles about Chinese factories not operating and freight ships not leaving because they don't have enough cargo
As well as ones on how these things have affected European businesses
Also there are loads of articles about Chinese factories not operating and freight ships not leaving because they don't have enough cargo
As well as ones on how these things have affected European businesses
(Edited 39 seconds later.)
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 6 years ago, 4 hours later, 20 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,091,303
@1,091,138 (B)
I never talked about the rest of the world, you are trying to make it out as if I'm running around and screaming "apocalypse apocalypse" but that's just something that you yourself hear as i am just saying there's a nasty virus out there that China isn't managing to contain. The reason there hasn't been a unbelievable growth in infections is because China is actually doing something about it, like the quarantine of 50 million people, instead of running around going "everything is fine" like you. The thing is though that it's known China can't test everyone for the virus and so the number of infected is estimated to be much higher and... Since you mentioned the rest of the world, Singapore seems to be on the opinion that they should expect a epidemic.
I never talked about the rest of the world, you are trying to make it out as if I'm running around and screaming "apocalypse apocalypse" but that's just something that you yourself hear as i am just saying there's a nasty virus out there that China isn't managing to contain. The reason there hasn't been a unbelievable growth in infections is because China is actually doing something about it, like the quarantine of 50 million people, instead of running around going "everything is fine" like you. The thing is though that it's known China can't test everyone for the virus and so the number of infected is estimated to be much higher and... Since you mentioned the rest of the world, Singapore seems to be on the opinion that they should expect a epidemic.
Anonymous G joined in and replied with this 6 years ago, 2 hours later, 22 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,091,317
A couple thousand infections out of 1.5 billion people seems pretty good to me.
Anonymous B replied with this 6 years ago, 38 minutes later, 22 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,091,318
@1,091,166 (dreamworks)
What's going to fail specifically? I don't know that China does anything that is irreplaceable in the short term except cheap parts and labor. There are plenty of articles about large companies planning ahead for a drop in production. I'm sure it'll be super sad if not as many microwave ovens and fan belts are made in 2020 or some kid can't order an extra pair of airpods, but I have a feeling everyone will pull through. In the meantime, the market is adjusting. Chinese shipping giant Alibaba reports that food delivery is up and clothing and technology might slow down. They seem concerned about their quarterly earnings statement, but are hardly forecasting doom and gloom ahead.
@1,091,303 (A)
> I never talked about the rest of the world
I'm not sure how to reconcile that with:
> The most fucked up shit is though that they are going to let people return to work and it's simply because globalization, the whole economic system will collapse without the Chinese workers
You seem to be convinced that nothing is going stop this killer virus despite reports of people scrambling worldwide to do just that. Here's an excerpt from an article put out a few hours ago that addresses some of your concerns:
It's not that I'm trying to pretend everything is fine. There is a public health crisis going on. I just don't think moaning about an imagined catastrophe where an unstoppable epidemic causes global markets to tank is a realistic or healthy pastime. Most of the people who are fear mongering about this at least are doing it to sell preppers and old people excess food buckets or miracle silver or some shit. You just seem to be doing it in your spare time.
What's going to fail specifically? I don't know that China does anything that is irreplaceable in the short term except cheap parts and labor. There are plenty of articles about large companies planning ahead for a drop in production. I'm sure it'll be super sad if not as many microwave ovens and fan belts are made in 2020 or some kid can't order an extra pair of airpods, but I have a feeling everyone will pull through. In the meantime, the market is adjusting. Chinese shipping giant Alibaba reports that food delivery is up and clothing and technology might slow down. They seem concerned about their quarterly earnings statement, but are hardly forecasting doom and gloom ahead.
@1,091,303 (A)
> I never talked about the rest of the world
I'm not sure how to reconcile that with:
> The most fucked up shit is though that they are going to let people return to work and it's simply because globalization, the whole economic system will collapse without the Chinese workers
You seem to be convinced that nothing is going stop this killer virus despite reports of people scrambling worldwide to do just that. Here's an excerpt from an article put out a few hours ago that addresses some of your concerns:
China reported 2,641 new virus cases Saturday as it escalates measures to contain the outbreak and reassure an anxious public.
Saturday marks the second day the number of new cases fell since a spike Thursday, when the hardest-hit province of Hubei began including clinical diagnoses in its official count. Using the wider scope of classification, the central Chinese province reported 15,152 cases, including 13,332 that were diagnosed using doctors' analyses and lung imaging, as opposed to the prior standard of laboratory testing.
Hubei health authorities said in the notice that the new method was adopted to facilitate earlier treatment for those suspected of infection.
Further confusion surfaced around a discrepancy of more than 1,000 cases between the Thursday and Friday reports. National Health Commission spokesman Mi Feng said Friday that the “decrease” in numbers was due to an adjustment made in Hubei's count after repetitive counting was discovered.
Saturday marks the second day the number of new cases fell since a spike Thursday, when the hardest-hit province of Hubei began including clinical diagnoses in its official count. Using the wider scope of classification, the central Chinese province reported 15,152 cases, including 13,332 that were diagnosed using doctors' analyses and lung imaging, as opposed to the prior standard of laboratory testing.
Hubei health authorities said in the notice that the new method was adopted to facilitate earlier treatment for those suspected of infection.
Further confusion surfaced around a discrepancy of more than 1,000 cases between the Thursday and Friday reports. National Health Commission spokesman Mi Feng said Friday that the “decrease” in numbers was due to an adjustment made in Hubei's count after repetitive counting was discovered.
It's not that I'm trying to pretend everything is fine. There is a public health crisis going on. I just don't think moaning about an imagined catastrophe where an unstoppable epidemic causes global markets to tank is a realistic or healthy pastime. Most of the people who are fear mongering about this at least are doing it to sell preppers and old people excess food buckets or miracle silver or some shit. You just seem to be doing it in your spare time.
dreamworks replied with this 6 years ago, 1 hour later, 1 day after the original post[^] [v] #1,091,321
@previous (B)
what??? specifically everything that's made in china. It has nothing to do with cheap parts, every part is made in china. Governments are worried about medicine shortages, many western companies already can't function properly because of the current delays. Literally every industry relies on infrastructure that currently only exists in china
what??? specifically everything that's made in china. It has nothing to do with cheap parts, every part is made in china. Governments are worried about medicine shortages, many western companies already can't function properly because of the current delays. Literally every industry relies on infrastructure that currently only exists in china
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 6 years ago, 2 hours later, 1 day after the original post[^] [v] #1,091,328
@1,091,318 (B)
> You seem to be convinced that nothing is going stop this killer virus despite reports of people scrambling worldwide to do just that
Why do you think they are scrambling to do just that? Because a pandemic would be pretty fucking serious. Would humanity survive, would life go on after that? Most definitely. Now again, I never said that I am convinced nothing would stop it, so again, perhaps that's something that you yourself unknowingly think and hear as i myself am just relaying the situation to you. The president of China did just fire the top medical chiefs responsible for fighting the outbreak, in Beijing there's a increased in effort, especially now, since a lot of migrant workers are expected to return to work.
Also thank you for that explanation but as i hoped you would realize, it confirms what i said and has been estimated, which is that the real outbreak is much higher as test kits are not in enough supply, medical teams are overrun.
China had increased the length of the holiday in hopes of people avoiding spreading it in work, but they can't do that anymore without a serious economic effects. Why else do you think they are allowing people to go back to work, especially after having extended the holidays?
> You seem to be convinced that nothing is going stop this killer virus despite reports of people scrambling worldwide to do just that
Why do you think they are scrambling to do just that? Because a pandemic would be pretty fucking serious. Would humanity survive, would life go on after that? Most definitely. Now again, I never said that I am convinced nothing would stop it, so again, perhaps that's something that you yourself unknowingly think and hear as i myself am just relaying the situation to you. The president of China did just fire the top medical chiefs responsible for fighting the outbreak, in Beijing there's a increased in effort, especially now, since a lot of migrant workers are expected to return to work.
Also thank you for that explanation but as i hoped you would realize, it confirms what i said and has been estimated, which is that the real outbreak is much higher as test kits are not in enough supply, medical teams are overrun.
China had increased the length of the holiday in hopes of people avoiding spreading it in work, but they can't do that anymore without a serious economic effects. Why else do you think they are allowing people to go back to work, especially after having extended the holidays?
(Edited 50 seconds later.)
Dead !Pool..v42s joined in and replied with this 6 years ago, 1 day later, 2 days after the original post[^] [v] #1,091,811
