Topic: 45% import tax on chinese and mexican goods
Jubilee Starshine started this discussion 10 years ago #57,080
during the campaign they kept mentioning a 35% tariff... i think because they are now entertaining a 45% tariff that the idea of a tariff on chinese imports isn't going anywhere. it's probably going to happen... which means we can expect a 70% increase on retail prices for all pure imports, and some fraction of that will be an across the board increase on almost all goods because quite a lot of manufacturers in the states are assembly plants and the actual components are made overseas. some parts may be made here, but others will be from china and will have more cost associated with them. this is because they are talking about a blanket tariff and not singling out an industry or specific good such as when japanese semi-conductors were taxed under reagan to save the american semi-conductor market from being undercut and put out of business.you can also expect to see prices rise as soon as the tariff is in place, retailers base their pricing off of replacement-cost-of-good, not previous costs. so even if they paid $3 for a t-shirt before the tariff, if the cost goes up to $4.50 to replace it then the old t-shirt gets a price increase to accommodate the purchasing of replacement stock. it won't matter if the goods in america are already here, they will take their price increase as soon as it's law - if not sooner, tbh. from what i'm reading the markets are already responding and this month the cost of imports has risen 6% just because trump won and has been talking about it. that is considerably higher than the yearly cost increase retailers take (about 1.5-3% at least) to cover inflation.
this year, if nothing else changes, we may already be looking at a 10% increase in prices before even christmas. hopefully that's not the case and i'm reading a bunch of reactionary hyperbole, but if trump actually pursues tariffs and they get passed then we're going to be in a world of hurt.
manufacturing will not come back either. we don't have the logistics here, companies like Apple will just move iPhone manufacturing to Vietnam because their supply chain is in Asia with Asian companies that own patents on the electronics they sell to Apple... they can't come back. all a tariff will do is make us poorer.
so.
nothing can be done to stop it if this is the direction they're really wanting to go. all we can really do is try and prepare and be ready for it. if there are any big purchases you've been holding off on making, now might be a really good time to consider going ahead and making that purchase. early christmas shopping may also be a really, really good idea. it doesn't sound like anything is going to get any less threatening going into the holidays, and business is very fickle. the economy can take a nose dive very quickly.
if you'll remember, after sept. 11th GW Bush implored people to keep shopping, to keep the economy moving and to not let fear paralyze them - but at the moment no one is saying that, and usually the chistmas season would be starting to gear up right now. but we're already super close to Thanksgiving and i'm hearing fuck-all about Black Friday sales. Election years are always bad for business and this one was particularly distracting, and it feels like businesses are stunned and trying to figure out what to do next and Christmas and Black Friday just aren't on the radar atm with the threat of gigantic and looming cost-of-goods increases.
If the economy doesn't get back to moving and if we have a weak holiday season then the economic troubles start before Trump is even sworn in...
and when they start really talking about medicare vouchers and looking at social security people are going to tighten up like fucking drums and businesses will start dropping like flies as everyone starts saving their money in their mattresses. huge companies will survive, they'll move their supply chains to India or somewhere and be fine. it'll be the small businesses that fail because they rely on suppliers, distributors and manufacturers that all have their own supply chain. if they deal heavily with the EU then there may be no need to move just to accommodate american buyers. they'll just let americans pay their tax.
so if you've got a favorite little independent store that isn't Walmart or some national chain go get what you want from them now, in a couple of years they may be boarded up.
this is what making america great again is all about
beckyderp !yDoooooooo joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 1 minute later[^] [v] #734,358
This isn't very cheery.
bu joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 6 minutes later, 7 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #734,359
ive been buying a lot of my shit since the election
macy's had a good election day sale even
macy's had a good election day sale even
Jubilee Starshine (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 22 minutes later, 30 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #734,362
i'll also explain the 70% number in a bit more detail.
a retail chain buys either direct from a manufacturer, or thorough a supplier/distributor. these guys set the cost of goods, from which retailers base their price. let's say they sell Widgets. Manufacturer A and Distributor B both get their stuff from China. Manufacturer A has moved their production to a plant overseas, and Distributor B buys their imports from a similar plant that produces similar widgets for export. both companies bring their widgets to america, pay a 45% import tax, and tack that onto the cost of widget making the cost now 145%
Mom&Pop retails widgets. they buy some widgets from manufacturer A and some from distributor B because there is a market for both. Mom&Pop pay 145% cost, and then apply their markup which is usually a multiplier. one of the most common multipliers in retail is known as a Keystone markup, which is a 2x markup. it's used as a benchmark to determine further markups or price reductions. a price will settle in based on sales velocity, but the initial price would in most cases be set to keystone.
in the widget scenario Mom&Pop would be selling their widgets for somewhere around 290% over the pre-tarrif costs. pre tariff pricing would be as it is now, the widget would retail for 200% over cost.
a real world scenario would be an router sold at Microcenter. it sells for 100 bucks, which means the cost was likely around 50 bucks. (we're talking retail, not sale pricing, we'll mention that in a minute...) so after the tariff the 50 dollar cost router from China will now cost them $72.5 because their distributor, Asus, already paid the 45% as an importing manufacturer or a re-branding distributor. now their retail is $145. 290% more than the original cost.
this is very different than increasing the cost of goods by adding the cost of the tariff to the end price, since the tariff is based on cost of goods. if that were the case, then Microcenter would charge $122.5 dollars, or, the selling price plus the tariff cost which is 45% of half the cost. that would be 245% markup over cost, which is probably what a lot of people think businesses would be doing, and that would absolutely not be standard practice at all.
businesses will not eat the costs. you will.
a retail chain buys either direct from a manufacturer, or thorough a supplier/distributor. these guys set the cost of goods, from which retailers base their price. let's say they sell Widgets. Manufacturer A and Distributor B both get their stuff from China. Manufacturer A has moved their production to a plant overseas, and Distributor B buys their imports from a similar plant that produces similar widgets for export. both companies bring their widgets to america, pay a 45% import tax, and tack that onto the cost of widget making the cost now 145%
Mom&Pop retails widgets. they buy some widgets from manufacturer A and some from distributor B because there is a market for both. Mom&Pop pay 145% cost, and then apply their markup which is usually a multiplier. one of the most common multipliers in retail is known as a Keystone markup, which is a 2x markup. it's used as a benchmark to determine further markups or price reductions. a price will settle in based on sales velocity, but the initial price would in most cases be set to keystone.
in the widget scenario Mom&Pop would be selling their widgets for somewhere around 290% over the pre-tarrif costs. pre tariff pricing would be as it is now, the widget would retail for 200% over cost.
a real world scenario would be an router sold at Microcenter. it sells for 100 bucks, which means the cost was likely around 50 bucks. (we're talking retail, not sale pricing, we'll mention that in a minute...) so after the tariff the 50 dollar cost router from China will now cost them $72.5 because their distributor, Asus, already paid the 45% as an importing manufacturer or a re-branding distributor. now their retail is $145. 290% more than the original cost.
this is very different than increasing the cost of goods by adding the cost of the tariff to the end price, since the tariff is based on cost of goods. if that were the case, then Microcenter would charge $122.5 dollars, or, the selling price plus the tariff cost which is 45% of half the cost. that would be 245% markup over cost, which is probably what a lot of people think businesses would be doing, and that would absolutely not be standard practice at all.
businesses will not eat the costs. you will.
(Edited 4 minutes later.)
Anonymous D joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 5 minutes later, 35 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #734,364
It is to make you want to buy American Made. Thus more things get made here. We pay those people aka OURSELVES. And that's how we keep OUR money inside the country.
Jubilee Starshine (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 26 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #734,369
@previous (D)
like i said, there's not much american made anymore, and even stuff that IS is largely just assembled here, there will be extra costs on the components and parts they manufacture overseas. and a lot of manufacturing will not come back, because it will be easier for them to move to other asian countries and just be hit with higher costs unrelated to the tariff but related to paying a more entitled work force. the jobs won't come here because we lack the manufacturing base. it's easier and cheaper to rebuild elsewhere, near to current supply chains, rather than spend years building new factories and supply networks in america where there's economic recession and civil uncertainty.
keeping OUR money is a very protectionist stance, one i whole heartedly disagree with. free trade, open markets, these are the fundamentals of capitalism upon which republican democracy is built, globalization isn't "bad" or something to be avoided. it is the natural order for growing markets and free economies. globalization should be embraced. we should be looking at educating our work force and creating more opportunities for people outside of manufacturing, we can lead the world economically and intellectually, and i'd argue that what we ACTUALLY export from this country is western fucking culture which has spread to every corner of the globe and has rewritten the political map for hundreds of countries. we don't need to export fucking textiles anymore. this isn't the fucking 1800s. we import the crap we should be too busy to be making ourselves.
we don't need exports. we're so fucking smart in the western world we just manufacture the value of our currency from thin-air. we print as much as we can reasonably stuff into our bloated economy with nothing to back it. we're so far beyond needing to make money from exports that it's quaint to think we need to be making rubber flip-flops and happy meal toys.
and as i've explained earlier, american businesses profit immensely from access to cheap products, we can earn more off of those products than the people making them do.
like i said, there's not much american made anymore, and even stuff that IS is largely just assembled here, there will be extra costs on the components and parts they manufacture overseas. and a lot of manufacturing will not come back, because it will be easier for them to move to other asian countries and just be hit with higher costs unrelated to the tariff but related to paying a more entitled work force. the jobs won't come here because we lack the manufacturing base. it's easier and cheaper to rebuild elsewhere, near to current supply chains, rather than spend years building new factories and supply networks in america where there's economic recession and civil uncertainty.
keeping OUR money is a very protectionist stance, one i whole heartedly disagree with. free trade, open markets, these are the fundamentals of capitalism upon which republican democracy is built, globalization isn't "bad" or something to be avoided. it is the natural order for growing markets and free economies. globalization should be embraced. we should be looking at educating our work force and creating more opportunities for people outside of manufacturing, we can lead the world economically and intellectually, and i'd argue that what we ACTUALLY export from this country is western fucking culture which has spread to every corner of the globe and has rewritten the political map for hundreds of countries. we don't need to export fucking textiles anymore. this isn't the fucking 1800s. we import the crap we should be too busy to be making ourselves.
we don't need exports. we're so fucking smart in the western world we just manufacture the value of our currency from thin-air. we print as much as we can reasonably stuff into our bloated economy with nothing to back it. we're so far beyond needing to make money from exports that it's quaint to think we need to be making rubber flip-flops and happy meal toys.
and as i've explained earlier, american businesses profit immensely from access to cheap products, we can earn more off of those products than the people making them do.
Metæ !goTRUMPlbg joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 1 minute later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #734,370
@OP
The 45% tariff, like The Wall and a total ban on Muslim immigration is an opening offer. It will get negotiated down to like China promising not to manipulate their currency so much in the future.
The 45% tariff, like The Wall and a total ban on Muslim immigration is an opening offer. It will get negotiated down to like China promising not to manipulate their currency so much in the future.
(Edited 57 seconds later.)
Jubilee Starshine (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 41 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #734,374
@previous (Metæ !goTRUMPlbg)
well, i'm making my back-up plans. it's always a rough ride when the economy takes a shit, and a trade dispute with china and mexico could be bad. i say could. no, it would. we impose taxes on their imports, they impose tax on our exports, we buy less, we sell less, we make less, we lose purchasing power, we have inflation... unemployment goes up. i work for a company that relies on, like, international trade as part of our supply chain - we get shit from everywhere but to a large extent china because that's where most of our vendors are having manufacturing done. that and mexico.... thank GOD he's not talking about taxing EU imports or i'd be in a real fucking panic.
as IS, i'm telling you, the only people this may help will be manufacturers in european countries since some businesses will be able to lean very heavily on products from the EU. that would literally be the only silver lining, and ray of hope. hopefully they'll find a way of routing chinese goods through distribution and cheaply into american hands. of course, this would probably end up hurting what little manufacturing there is left in america. europe sends out finished products, and may be able to disguise "chinese internals" by slapping a fancy european case on it and calling it Made in the EU. america will pay more for manufactured chinese parts and get undercut by european products with those same parts... so maybe not a ray of hope at all, that might actually just fucking kill us...
anyway. all i can do is prepare to have my life disrupted in some way and hope it doesn't happen. figure out what i can do to pivot should things get ugly. otherwise i've got a "career plan" i've been working for more than a decade and i've got opportunities in my future that i'm cultivating and come harvest my plan will have me set up for the long haul. if everything stays the same or gets better, or even gets slightly worse, then my plan should be just fine. i'm probably 2, maybe 1 year out from making a goal a reality. but, if the economy is in the toilet then that goal may be made moot. usually i like to try and anticipate major hurdles in my "5 year plans" so to speak. and i'm sensing more than a few over the last few months. goals may need to change. i'm looking at options though. worst case scenario, i start over. silver lining? i'll be far from the only one. so it's right now looking at what i could potentially pivot towards. i'm considering going back to school, which was really off my radar when the election started tbh. but if i did it would be to go in a different direction. so... there's an investment there too in planning that kind of pivot. time wise. it would interfere with plan A. bigly.
so i think i gotta wait and see. which makes me scared, frankly.
well, i'm making my back-up plans. it's always a rough ride when the economy takes a shit, and a trade dispute with china and mexico could be bad. i say could. no, it would. we impose taxes on their imports, they impose tax on our exports, we buy less, we sell less, we make less, we lose purchasing power, we have inflation... unemployment goes up. i work for a company that relies on, like, international trade as part of our supply chain - we get shit from everywhere but to a large extent china because that's where most of our vendors are having manufacturing done. that and mexico.... thank GOD he's not talking about taxing EU imports or i'd be in a real fucking panic.
as IS, i'm telling you, the only people this may help will be manufacturers in european countries since some businesses will be able to lean very heavily on products from the EU. that would literally be the only silver lining, and ray of hope. hopefully they'll find a way of routing chinese goods through distribution and cheaply into american hands. of course, this would probably end up hurting what little manufacturing there is left in america. europe sends out finished products, and may be able to disguise "chinese internals" by slapping a fancy european case on it and calling it Made in the EU. america will pay more for manufactured chinese parts and get undercut by european products with those same parts... so maybe not a ray of hope at all, that might actually just fucking kill us...
anyway. all i can do is prepare to have my life disrupted in some way and hope it doesn't happen. figure out what i can do to pivot should things get ugly. otherwise i've got a "career plan" i've been working for more than a decade and i've got opportunities in my future that i'm cultivating and come harvest my plan will have me set up for the long haul. if everything stays the same or gets better, or even gets slightly worse, then my plan should be just fine. i'm probably 2, maybe 1 year out from making a goal a reality. but, if the economy is in the toilet then that goal may be made moot. usually i like to try and anticipate major hurdles in my "5 year plans" so to speak. and i'm sensing more than a few over the last few months. goals may need to change. i'm looking at options though. worst case scenario, i start over. silver lining? i'll be far from the only one. so it's right now looking at what i could potentially pivot towards. i'm considering going back to school, which was really off my radar when the election started tbh. but if i did it would be to go in a different direction. so... there's an investment there too in planning that kind of pivot. time wise. it would interfere with plan A. bigly.
so i think i gotta wait and see. which makes me scared, frankly.
FUCKYOU joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 2 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #734,375
FUCK ALL OF YOU. DONALD TRUMP ALL THE WAY BITCHES.
Anonymous D replied with this 10 years ago, 12 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^] [v] #734,376
@previous (FUCKYOU)
You clearly don't like globalism what's wrong with you don't you like being Rothschilds bitch?
You clearly don't like globalism what's wrong with you don't you like being Rothschilds bitch?
Jubilee Starshine (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 4 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^] [v] #734,378
@734,375 (FUCKYOU)
you know, as much as i hate the fucker and would enjoy being vindicated i really, really hope that i'm flat ass wrong and that he does the best job and it's a beautiful thing. i really, really do. i just don't have a good feeling about it. if he does a good job, i won't have a problem with his slime-bag portrait hanging somewhere in the white house. he can have a room named after him if he does as good a job as he says he will. i'll even applaud and call him the president with my own voice and wish him well into retirement. might even vote for him in 4 years if he's so great. but boy does that sound far fetched to me.
you know, as much as i hate the fucker and would enjoy being vindicated i really, really hope that i'm flat ass wrong and that he does the best job and it's a beautiful thing. i really, really do. i just don't have a good feeling about it. if he does a good job, i won't have a problem with his slime-bag portrait hanging somewhere in the white house. he can have a room named after him if he does as good a job as he says he will. i'll even applaud and call him the president with my own voice and wish him well into retirement. might even vote for him in 4 years if he's so great. but boy does that sound far fetched to me.
One Hung Low joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 1 hour later, 3 hours after the original post[^] [v] #734,393
中國可以簡單地為我們從美國進口的商品增加90％的關稅。> 它會談判下來像中國承諾不操縱他們的貨幣這麼多在未來。
廢話。美國通過印刷數万億美元的紙幣操縱美國貨幣。
特朗普與我們混亂。我們發送鎳袋的海洛因，只需要一個鎳。
China can simply add a 90% Tariff to goods we import from the USA.
> It will get negotiated down to like China promising not to manipulate their currency so much in the future.
Nonsense. USA manipulates US currency by printing Trillions of dollars of paper money.
Trump mess with us. We send in nickel bags of Heroin that will cost only a nickel.
Sheila LaBoof joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 36 minutes later, 4 hours after the original post[^] [v] #734,397
@734,370 (Metæ !goTRUMPlbg)
god dammit, you just tipped the Chinease off, now the WHOEL FUCKING PLAN IS KAPUT
god dammit, you just tipped the Chinease off, now the WHOEL FUCKING PLAN IS KAPUT