Topic: How trump might actually win
Denmark guy !jJEom8Ii3E started this discussion 10 years ago #56,598
Maybe you haven't noticed but if you support trump you apparently support rape or the second coming of nazis etc..... Meanwhile trump is secure in his position to lower taxes while hillary remains in the fog regarding that.
My point is, the polls are a lie. The polls reflect people saying they are going to vote for the common good when actually they will vote in self interest.
My point is, the polls are a lie. The polls reflect people saying they are going to vote for the common good when actually they will vote in self interest.
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 5 minutes later[^] [v] #729,541
You are right in saying the only way trump wins is if the polls are massively wrong. You are wrong basically about everything else.
Denmark guy !jJEom8Ii3E (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 3 minutes later, 8 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #729,543
@previous (Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU)
If you say so. I wouldn't place to much trust in them polls though, there is a public face and a private face.
If you say so. I wouldn't place to much trust in them polls though, there is a public face and a private face.
Anonymous C joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 4 minutes later, 12 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #729,545
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Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU replied with this 10 years ago, 1 second later, 12 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #729,546
@729,543 (Denmark guy !jJEom8Ii3E)
Republicans have been explicitly for cutting taxes and Dems quietly for raising them since like forever. Election polling averages are consistently within a few percentage points of the actual tally. There is zero evidence for your assertion bud.
Republicans have been explicitly for cutting taxes and Dems quietly for raising them since like forever. Election polling averages are consistently within a few percentage points of the actual tally. There is zero evidence for your assertion bud.
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU double-posted this 10 years ago, 32 seconds later, 13 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #729,547
Denmark guy !jJEom8Ii3E (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 5 minutes later, 18 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #729,548
@729,546 (Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU)
I admit it's speculation but speculation is not always wrong. This election is different, people are going through hard times and on top of that trump supporters might seem loud but considering how other people might see you as a trump supporter, many aren't loud about it at all, including polls.
I admit it's speculation but speculation is not always wrong. This election is different, people are going through hard times and on top of that trump supporters might seem loud but considering how other people might see you as a trump supporter, many aren't loud about it at all, including polls.
Ｒａｔ Ｐａｒｋ replied with this 10 years ago, 1 minute later, 19 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #729,549
@729,547 (Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU)Ｗｅ ｍｕｓｔ ｎｏｔ ｌｅｔ #ＣｒｏｏｋｅｄＨｉｌｌａｒｙ ｔａｋｅ ｈｅｒ ＣＲＩＭＩＮＡＬ ＳＣＨＥＭＥ ｉｎｔｏ ｔｈｅ Ｏｖａｌ Ｏｆｆｉｃｅ. #ＤｒａｉｎＴｈｅＳｗａｍｐ
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU replied with this 10 years ago, 8 minutes later, 27 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #729,551
@729,548 (Denmark guy !jJEom8Ii3E)
I live in a place that is going to vote for Hillary over Trump basically 90-10 and I have not seen a single sign or spoken to a single person who is outwardly pro Hillary. It's at least as likely that there are quiet Hillary supporters who are undercounted. I don't see the value of baseless speculation, especially when we will have the answer is like two weeks away.
I live in a place that is going to vote for Hillary over Trump basically 90-10 and I have not seen a single sign or spoken to a single person who is outwardly pro Hillary. It's at least as likely that there are quiet Hillary supporters who are undercounted. I don't see the value of baseless speculation, especially when we will have the answer is like two weeks away.
(Edited 1 minute later.)
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU double-posted this 10 years ago, 1 minute later, 28 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #729,552
Syntax joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 2 minutes later, 31 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #729,555
@729,543 (Denmark guy !jJEom8Ii3E)Trust in polls
Good point and its rare I reply to your nonsense PLUS I despise Child Molesters such as you want to be
Polling companies MOST of them are HUGE Operations. Elections is only a very tiny part of the business. Just about every product on grocery shelf has a Polling company checking people out abut how they feel. Auto industry uses polling companies to find out how customers really feel and why a potential customer wood not even give their product a 2nd look.
Some polling is done by ultra respected non-profit operations like Pew - All the polling companies have a track record. One can look up on elections over DECADES - How often they get it right or wrong - Its a business that depends on MATH STATISTICS and a huge amount of research on Humans - How Humans react - Large polling companies have Psychologists on staff. Polling companies put people under a microscope and EXAM
So IF U want to see just how good they are you could look at how well they did LAST Election and the Election B4
So I give you this to study
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/
Just skim and drop to scroll in detail what you see in my image - 50% down the page you get to see how many Polls and how well they did vs OUTCOME -
One word of caution - Fox News for instance after 2012 and 2008 Decided the company they hired was such crap they had to be fired - So the current company looks so much more better but we will not really no till Nov 9 or 10
Rasmussen Reports did so poorly and manipulated the last few weeks results to more match everyone else and got busted and Founder CEO Rasmussen resigned in disgrace and was mad as fuck at getting caught
Anyway enjoy cause I have a lot of Cold Hard Cash ridding on Polling companies getting it right VERY Right and its again good to C CNN does real well
Oh and CNN ABC NBC CBS FOX etc all contract out the work to a Professional and When you see NBC for instance it may be NBC/XYZ or for a different Poll NBC/TUK
Polling is very very expensive so for quick polls NBC may pick a cheaper company to do a quick poll so one does have to look at exactly who was doing the polling
Denmark guy !jJEom8Ii3E (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 3 minutes later, 35 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #729,556
@729,551 (Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU)
Well, I'm not going to pretend i can back up what I'm about to say but polls have been wrong before, in the exact way I described.
Is it really so hard to believe that people want less taxes and even lie in polls when one of the candidates have been deionized beyond belief?
Well, I'm not going to pretend i can back up what I'm about to say but polls have been wrong before, in the exact way I described.
Is it really so hard to believe that people want less taxes and even lie in polls when one of the candidates have been deionized beyond belief?
Jubilee Starshine joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 14 minutes later, 50 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #729,560
@previous (Denmark guy !jJEom8Ii3E)
> but polls have been wrong before
and polls have been right before, too. you can't just look at a few polls that are wrong and judge all polling as wrong any more than you can call one correct poll evidence that all polling is correct. nope. you'd need to to take a huge data set of polls, and see which ones have been right, and which ones have been wrong. you'd have to do some statistical analysis on the data set to determine if polling is generally usually right, or usually wrong. but, since polling is also a form of statistical analysis and polling can be wrong, then how can we trust that the statistical analysis is even correct?
polling is a rabbit hole you don't want to jump into, denmark guy
> but polls have been wrong before
and polls have been right before, too. you can't just look at a few polls that are wrong and judge all polling as wrong any more than you can call one correct poll evidence that all polling is correct. nope. you'd need to to take a huge data set of polls, and see which ones have been right, and which ones have been wrong. you'd have to do some statistical analysis on the data set to determine if polling is generally usually right, or usually wrong. but, since polling is also a form of statistical analysis and polling can be wrong, then how can we trust that the statistical analysis is even correct?
polling is a rabbit hole you don't want to jump into, denmark guy
Denmark guy !jJEom8Ii3E (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 3 minutes later, 53 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #729,561
@previous (Jubilee Starshine)
Okay i won't jump into it, but if trump surprisingly wins, don't... You know, be surprised.
Okay i won't jump into it, but if trump surprisingly wins, don't... You know, be surprised.
buto joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 17 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #729,570
Denmark guy !jJEom8Ii3E (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 5 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #729,572
Denmark guy joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 48 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^] [v] #729,581
@729,560 (Jubilee Starshine)
No, I am certain that I can somehow twist this to my own ends. I want the polls to be wrong so they must be wrong.
I have never let facts or logic get in my way before, and I won't start now!
No, I am certain that I can somehow twist this to my own ends. I want the polls to be wrong so they must be wrong.
I have never let facts or logic get in my way before, and I won't start now!
Anonymous H joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 30 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^] [v] #729,590
Denmark guy joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 6 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^] [v] #729,591
I'm gay lol
Denmark guy !jJEom8Ii3E joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 2 weeks later, 2 weeks after the original post[^] [v] #734,205
Told you guys!!!!1111!
beckyderp !yDoooooooo joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 43 minutes later, 2 weeks after the original post[^] [v] #734,215
Denmark guy !jJEom8Ii3E replied with this 10 years ago, 48 seconds later, 2 weeks after the original post[^] [v] #734,216
Anonymous L joined in and replied with this 6 years ago, 3 years later, 3 years after the original post[^] [v] #1,058,896
Erik !jzYkdX7lIw joined in and replied with this 6 years ago, 43 minutes later, 3 years after the original post[^] [v] #1,058,902
Lol libs BTFO
Anonymous N joined in and replied with this 6 years ago, 59 minutes later, 3 years after the original post[^] [v] #1,058,910
@729,541 (Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU)
https://youtu.be/CBPcacIvdIY
Watch and get your education junior..
https://youtu.be/CBPcacIvdIY
Watch and get your education junior..
(Edited 13 seconds later.)
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU replied with this 6 years ago, 6 minutes later, 3 years after the original post[^] [v] #1,058,916
@previous (N)
I've clicked like three of your political YouTube links and every single one of them has been brain-meltingly retarded. I think I will have to skip this one unfortunately.
I've clicked like three of your political YouTube links and every single one of them has been brain-meltingly retarded. I think I will have to skip this one unfortunately.
Anonymous N replied with this 6 years ago, 3 minutes later, 3 years after the original post[^] [v] #1,058,917
@previous (Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU)
lol..
You won't watch it because you are scared of the truth..
Just have faith in your biased news organizations and their polls...and see how that works out for you..
lol..
You won't watch it because you are scared of the truth..
Just have faith in your biased news organizations and their polls...and see how that works out for you..
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU replied with this 6 years ago, 6 minutes later, 3 years after the original post[^] [v] #1,058,920
@previous (N)
Scared of what? Trump being elected president? That's already happened once. It's not scary it's just bad.
I don't have faith in news orgs lol. I believe roughly that polls are a good (+/- 3%) snapshot of the current odds of a presidential candidate winning a certain percentage of the popular vote. That's as far as I go. You seem to have rather...creative ideas about what you think I think.
Scared of what? Trump being elected president? That's already happened once. It's not scary it's just bad.
I don't have faith in news orgs lol. I believe roughly that polls are a good (+/- 3%) snapshot of the current odds of a presidential candidate winning a certain percentage of the popular vote. That's as far as I go. You seem to have rather...creative ideas about what you think I think.
Anonymous N replied with this 6 years ago, 13 minutes later, 3 years after the original post[^] [v] #1,058,923
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU replied with this 6 years ago, 1 minute later, 3 years after the original post[^] [v] #1,058,924
Anonymous N replied with this 6 years ago, 10 minutes later, 3 years after the original post[^] [v] #1,058,929
@previous (Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU)
The polls help you buy into and believe all the misinformation and slander from the prominent Liberalcrats..
If it we're not so, you would support our President...a decent man who has been doing a terrific job trying to help our country..
I wish I could believe you could see how the Liberalcrats are unjustly attempting to persecute him just to place a Liberalcrats in his seat..
It's fucking depressing that you people are blind to that..
The polls help you buy into and believe all the misinformation and slander from the prominent Liberalcrats..
If it we're not so, you would support our President...a decent man who has been doing a terrific job trying to help our country..
I wish I could believe you could see how the Liberalcrats are unjustly attempting to persecute him just to place a Liberalcrats in his seat..
It's fucking depressing that you people are blind to that..
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU replied with this 6 years ago, 5 minutes later, 3 years after the original post[^] [v] #1,058,932
@previous (N)
I don't know what a "liberalcrat" is, but the Democrats are very weakly holding him accountable. Even if they did successfully impeach him, they would get President Mike Pence. This isn't about getting a Democrat into the WH in 2019. It's about preventing abuse of office from going unpunished.
He is also the furthest thing from a "decent man". He cheated on his current wife while she was caring for their smallest child, and then violated campaign finance laws to have his attorney make hush money payments to the woman he cheated on her with. And this is like one scandal out of 50. The dude is just a POS lowlife and the sooner you realize that the sooner you'll be able to have sensible political opinions.
I don't know what a "liberalcrat" is, but the Democrats are very weakly holding him accountable. Even if they did successfully impeach him, they would get President Mike Pence. This isn't about getting a Democrat into the WH in 2019. It's about preventing abuse of office from going unpunished.
He is also the furthest thing from a "decent man". He cheated on his current wife while she was caring for their smallest child, and then violated campaign finance laws to have his attorney make hush money payments to the woman he cheated on her with. And this is like one scandal out of 50. The dude is just a POS lowlife and the sooner you realize that the sooner you'll be able to have sensible political opinions.
(Edited 2 minutes later.)
Anonymous N replied with this 6 years ago, 7 minutes later, 3 years after the original post[^] [v] #1,058,936
Having a President of the USA should not be about watching him like a hawk every second of every day and shrieking like a hysterical outraged woman when he doesn't dot an I or doesn't cross a t for fucksake..
(Edited 1 minute later.)
Killer Lettuce? !HonkUK.BIE replied with this 6 years ago, 2 minutes later, 3 years after the original post[^] [v] #1,058,937
@previous (N)
Indeed, trying to intimidate a foreign country into investigating a political rival is a minor issue. I'm really not sure what all the fuss is about.
Indeed, trying to intimidate a foreign country into investigating a political rival is a minor issue. I'm really not sure what all the fuss is about.
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU replied with this 6 years ago, 3 minutes later, 3 years after the original post[^] [v] #1,058,938
@1,058,936 (N)
So under what circumstances should be be held accountable? When it's convenient for him?
So under what circumstances should be be held accountable? When it's convenient for him?
Anonymous N replied with this 6 years ago, 3 minutes later, 3 years after the original post[^] [v] #1,058,942
@1,058,937 (Killer Lettuce? !HonkUK.BIE)
They've been nitpicking every single day since 2015..
It's disgusting..
They've been nitpicking every single day since 2015..
It's disgusting..
Killer Lettuce? !HonkUK.BIE replied with this 6 years ago, 42 minutes later, 3 years after the original post[^] [v] #1,058,968
@previous (N)
Is there perhaps some reason why President Trump has gotten more scrutiny than most other Presidents? Aside from him being so great and the Democrats spontaneously going crazy, of course.
Is there perhaps some reason why President Trump has gotten more scrutiny than most other Presidents? Aside from him being so great and the Democrats spontaneously going crazy, of course.
(Edited 25 minutes later.)
Anonymous N replied with this 6 years ago, 16 minutes later, 3 years after the original post[^] [v] #1,058,971
One aspect small as it may be, has to be how they all (95%of the press) said a million times Trump could not possibly win the election.
That made them look foolish and they subsequently pouted over being made to look foolish..
That made them look foolish and they subsequently pouted over being made to look foolish..
(Edited 1 minute later.)
jodi !ariasXXmaE replied with this 6 years ago, 16 minutes later, 3 years after the original post[^] [v] #1,058,979
hahaha