Topic: Metæ Metæ Metæ Save this date please 68 days 7 hours + Hillary vs Trump who will be Flushed
Syntax started this discussion 10 years ago #55,248
In the recent past you claimed Nate Silver and his 538.com team only get it right because they decide the morning of the election. So let's keep this as a record of how they forecast it 2+ months in advance.Who will win the presidency?
Chance of winning Hillary Clinton 73.8% Donald Trump 26.2%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
I will follow this with Betfairs Election Betting Odds which have remained very much the same for weeks - months and if all goes well for me... YEARS
Syntax (OP) double-posted this 10 years ago, 34 seconds later[^] [v] #715,334
悟 joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 1 minute later, 1 minute after the original post[^] [v] #715,336
ugh
Syntax (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 1 minute later, 3 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #715,337
悟 replied with this 10 years ago, 2 minutes later, 5 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #715,338
Anonymous C joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 4 minutes later, 9 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #715,340
Syntax (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 23 seconds later, 10 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #715,341
This is the Graph from Betfair as presented in Graph form by Maxin Lotthttps://electionbettingodds.com/WIN_chart_maxim_lott_john_stossel.html
Notice not so much really has changed Jan to Sept 1
Anonymous D joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 2 minutes later, 12 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #715,342
Metæ joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 11 minutes later, 24 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #715,346
@OP
Got my slide rule out and quick check of percentages Eye C 26.2% B b B er 1,300% more bigger than 2% chance Nate "49 out of 50 States" Silver gave Trump chance of winning the primary.
Interesting trend too: Trump's peaks are getting higher and Clinton's valleys are getting lower.
My gut feeling: the media's pushing Clinton a bit too hard. I remember in 08, 12 the media was cool and relaxed re:Obama victory. They laffed at Mormon Mitt of course but it was all a joke. I just get a sense of absolute terror from the media which says they're not very confident.
Got my slide rule out and quick check of percentages Eye C 26.2% B b B er 1,300% more bigger than 2% chance Nate "49 out of 50 States" Silver gave Trump chance of winning the primary.
Interesting trend too: Trump's peaks are getting higher and Clinton's valleys are getting lower.
My gut feeling: the media's pushing Clinton a bit too hard. I remember in 08, 12 the media was cool and relaxed re:Obama victory. They laffed at Mormon Mitt of course but it was all a joke. I just get a sense of absolute terror from the media which says they're not very confident.
Metæ double-posted this 10 years ago, 8 minutes later, 33 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #715,349
Also there's a bit of dark matter aka Shy Tory Syndrome which adds a lot of mass but can't be seen.
A personal example: I support Donald Trump. I would like to put a Trump-Pence bumper sticker on my car but I know that if I do that some, uh, nice folks will come along and vandalize my automobile. So I don't. Now if you put a Clinton-Kaine (or Stein, or Johnson) sticker on your car nothing will happen because Trump supporters aren't violent.
I live in Texas and I have not seen a single Trump sticker on a car. which is weird because in 04,08 I saw about a million Bush-Cheney stickers on cars.
A personal example: I support Donald Trump. I would like to put a Trump-Pence bumper sticker on my car but I know that if I do that some, uh, nice folks will come along and vandalize my automobile. So I don't. Now if you put a Clinton-Kaine (or Stein, or Johnson) sticker on your car nothing will happen because Trump supporters aren't violent.
I live in Texas and I have not seen a single Trump sticker on a car. which is weird because in 04,08 I saw about a million Bush-Cheney stickers on cars.
Syntax (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 16 seconds later, 33 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #715,350
@715,346 (Metæ)
> 1,300% more bigger than 2% chance Nate
EyE new you wood pull out the 2% number and yes indeed he did say that. Wood have to look up his own words to quote him but HE DID NOT get that number by running 20,000 computer simulations. His Gut feel and he sure has posted a ton of stuff about that mistrake in his judgement
As you can see from the link I provided his current numbers are based on Math. The Betfair odds are based on how Millions of dollars are being er Placed after all its not a betting parlor in the normal cents - How people real people like ME ME ME who have placed cold hard money from their wallet on the election
It is getting harder to get nice spread bets in on Betfair
> 1,300% more bigger than 2% chance Nate
EyE new you wood pull out the 2% number and yes indeed he did say that. Wood have to look up his own words to quote him but HE DID NOT get that number by running 20,000 computer simulations. His Gut feel and he sure has posted a ton of stuff about that mistrake in his judgement
As you can see from the link I provided his current numbers are based on Math. The Betfair odds are based on how Millions of dollars are being er Placed after all its not a betting parlor in the normal cents - How people real people like ME ME ME who have placed cold hard money from their wallet on the election
It is getting harder to get nice spread bets in on Betfair
Syntax (OP) double-posted this 10 years ago, 41 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #715,358
@715,346 (Metæ)Peaks and valleys for comparison - I keep this in a tab right next to the tab for daily current Presidential polls
Does have interesting dips and peaks. And of course the most famous final days polls - I also keep track of which polls are on the spot most accurate over the decades. Of course so does Nate Silver.