Topic: FAO: Brits, re: the next General Election
RWBY Rhubarb? !!iNo3FkiZx started this discussion 10 years ago #53,936
I'm curious about how you think another General Election in the UK would go, given the complicated current political situation.
IMO, the Tories are in a very good position. Them seemingly committing to Brexit should steal back some of their UKIP voters. Meanwhile, Labour is currently unstable and marred with infighting so they're likely much less attractive to voters. As it stands, I think the Tories can easily come across as "the stability party" and maybe even increase their majority.
However, could Remain voters bitter towards the Tories launch another party to electoral success? It would be a big turnaround, but I could see the Lib Dems doing well in some constituencies with their stated policy of reversing the Brexit. Though I'm really unsure how significant this factor could be when an election does happen.
But those are just my thoughts. I'm very interested in hearing other people's takes on the situation.
IMO, the Tories are in a very good position. Them seemingly committing to Brexit should steal back some of their UKIP voters. Meanwhile, Labour is currently unstable and marred with infighting so they're likely much less attractive to voters. As it stands, I think the Tories can easily come across as "the stability party" and maybe even increase their majority.
However, could Remain voters bitter towards the Tories launch another party to electoral success? It would be a big turnaround, but I could see the Lib Dems doing well in some constituencies with their stated policy of reversing the Brexit. Though I'm really unsure how significant this factor could be when an election does happen.
But those are just my thoughts. I'm very interested in hearing other people's takes on the situation.
Svet !jzYkdX7lIw joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 1 hour later[^] [v] #702,196
Tories will steam roll the election to an even larger majority.
I believe now with Farage gone and Brexit underway many UKIP voters (3rd largest voter base) will go to the tories as they are the safest pair of hands at the moment. Libdems will see a rise mostly coming from Labour voters. Any bitterness from Brexit will most likely come from Labour voters who disliked Corbyn's approach to the remain campaign as he was a secret outer.
I believe now with Farage gone and Brexit underway many UKIP voters (3rd largest voter base) will go to the tories as they are the safest pair of hands at the moment. Libdems will see a rise mostly coming from Labour voters. Any bitterness from Brexit will most likely come from Labour voters who disliked Corbyn's approach to the remain campaign as he was a secret outer.
RWBY Rhubarb? !!iNo3FkiZx (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 19 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #702,199
@previous (Svet !jzYkdX7lIw)
> Libdems will see a rise mostly coming from Labour voters.
That's a good point, actually. There's a chance that the anti-Tory side will be too split to have any real impact, further helping the Tories.
> Libdems will see a rise mostly coming from Labour voters.
That's a good point, actually. There's a chance that the anti-Tory side will be too split to have any real impact, further helping the Tories.
RWBY Rhubarb? !!iNo3FkiZx (OP) double-posted this 10 years ago, 2 days later, 2 days after the original post[^] [v] #703,130
m8s- I have an important bump- as it turns out, Svet and I were absolutely correct. At least, according to this poll:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/07/18/voting-intention-conservatives-lead-eleven/
The Tories are going to streamroll it... Granted, the article notes that they're getting a probably temporary boost from their new leader. But even then...
Green !BEERiVqJJw joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 1 hour later, 2 days after the original post[^] [v] #703,146
David Cameron.
RWBY Rhubarb? !!iNo3FkiZx (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 2 minutes later, 2 days after the original post[^] [v] #703,147
TTEH !PUPenis69. joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 5 hours later, 3 days after the original post[^] [v] #703,184
@703,130 (RWBY Rhubarb? !!iNo3FkiZx)
Fuck's sake, Labour need to sort themselves out. We need a strong left-wing opposition, without Stop the War/CND nutters at the helm.
Fuck's sake, Labour need to sort themselves out. We need a strong left-wing opposition, without Stop the War/CND nutters at the helm.
RWBY Rhubarb? !!iNo3FkiZx (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 11 minutes later, 3 days after the original post[^] [v] #703,188
@previous (TTEH !PUPenis69.)
I agree there needs to be a credible, left-leaning opposition. Even though I have a generally positive opinion of the current Tory government, I think it's important for our democracy to have that credible and coherent opposition in place.
Though, unfortunately, it seems that won't be happening any time soon. Corbyn is on track to win the Labour leadership election. Not only would he likely do badly in the subsequent General Election, but there's a risk that him winning leadership again could cause Labour to split.
> without Stop the War/CND nutters at the helm.
I did have a cynical chuckle at how Corbyn openly went against his own party's policy to push his own anti-nuke agenda at the Trident debate. As you allude to, the guy can't seem to compromise on his personal ideals for the sake of his party.
I agree there needs to be a credible, left-leaning opposition. Even though I have a generally positive opinion of the current Tory government, I think it's important for our democracy to have that credible and coherent opposition in place.
Though, unfortunately, it seems that won't be happening any time soon. Corbyn is on track to win the Labour leadership election. Not only would he likely do badly in the subsequent General Election, but there's a risk that him winning leadership again could cause Labour to split.
> without Stop the War/CND nutters at the helm.
I did have a cynical chuckle at how Corbyn openly went against his own party's policy to push his own anti-nuke agenda at the Trident debate. As you allude to, the guy can't seem to compromise on his personal ideals for the sake of his party.
RWBY Rubarb? !!iNo3FkiZx (OP) double-posted this 10 years ago, 5 days later, 1 week after the original post[^] [v] #704,989
My fellow Britons! I hope I am not beating a dead horse, but ICM, a major polling organisation, have published their latest General Election poll results:
https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/
Conservative 43% (+4)
Labour 27% (-2)
UKIP 13% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-1)
SNP 4% (nc)
Green 4% (nc)
Plaid Cymru 1% (nc)
Other *% (-1)
Labour 27% (-2)
UKIP 13% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-1)
SNP 4% (nc)
Green 4% (nc)
Plaid Cymru 1% (nc)
Other *% (-1)
https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/
RWBY Rubarb? !!iNo3FkiZx (OP) triple-posted this 10 years ago, 3 minutes later, 1 week after the original post[^] [v] #704,990
Also interesting, a politics lecturer tried translating the ICM results into seats in a General Election:https://mobile.twitter.com/mariusostrowski/status/757886025947570176
Note the projected Tory majority of 100 seats. Quite an improvement over a majority of 12!
Syntax joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 2 hours later, 1 week after the original post[^] [v] #705,019
@OP
Perhaps and honest to God I hate saying this - Perhaps its time people understand the Consequence of their actions. Its just like deciding to go to war and their is a price to be paid.
If Brexit really ends up with total disconnect from Eu the Attorney's in UK will make a bloody fortune having to start from scratch to work out each and every trade deal world wide. Trader Joes cheese buyer the other days told me HE cannot buy any cheese from UK after UK commits full on Circumcision. USA trade agreements lock in Eu Standards and UK still has to meet them YET they will no longer be able to use the Eu Paperwork for boiler plates NOR test the cheese for safety for Export. New Labs UK will have to provide or contract as a small user to a private lab that is certified by USA Trade rules. (Such labs do not even exist)
Just add Cheese to a long list of UK products that are exported on the world market. The Farmer that was mad as hell over Eu rules to buy his cheese will flip out when he gets the bill for all the paper work and new testing - Just imagine UK in any export bind in near future.
USA could end up exactly the same if Trump ends up elected. Attempts at pissing off WTO and all current Trade deals - Stock market and pension plans and people on Social Security - Perhaps a wake up call in necessary to re-educate the common man woman child to reality.
Consequences have blow back and maybe its just time for Re-Education while wallets shrink a bit which will make for more balanced rear ends.
tl;dr
UK cannot export using any old Eu documents labs rules to anyone other than Cuba and Brazil and China. None who are on any lists as important importers. Good news maybe that Cheese will sell for less than cost of feed to feed the sheep/goats.
Perhaps and honest to God I hate saying this - Perhaps its time people understand the Consequence of their actions. Its just like deciding to go to war and their is a price to be paid.
If Brexit really ends up with total disconnect from Eu the Attorney's in UK will make a bloody fortune having to start from scratch to work out each and every trade deal world wide. Trader Joes cheese buyer the other days told me HE cannot buy any cheese from UK after UK commits full on Circumcision. USA trade agreements lock in Eu Standards and UK still has to meet them YET they will no longer be able to use the Eu Paperwork for boiler plates NOR test the cheese for safety for Export. New Labs UK will have to provide or contract as a small user to a private lab that is certified by USA Trade rules. (Such labs do not even exist)
Just add Cheese to a long list of UK products that are exported on the world market. The Farmer that was mad as hell over Eu rules to buy his cheese will flip out when he gets the bill for all the paper work and new testing - Just imagine UK in any export bind in near future.
USA could end up exactly the same if Trump ends up elected. Attempts at pissing off WTO and all current Trade deals - Stock market and pension plans and people on Social Security - Perhaps a wake up call in necessary to re-educate the common man woman child to reality.
Consequences have blow back and maybe its just time for Re-Education while wallets shrink a bit which will make for more balanced rear ends.
tl;dr
UK cannot export using any old Eu documents labs rules to anyone other than Cuba and Brazil and China. None who are on any lists as important importers. Good news maybe that Cheese will sell for less than cost of feed to feed the sheep/goats.
(Edited 1 minute later.)
RWBY Rubarb? !!iNo3FkiZx (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 8 minutes later, 1 week after the original post[^] [v] #705,024
@previous (Syntax)
This thread isn't about the Brexit, Syntax. This is about the UK's next General Election.
This thread isn't about the Brexit, Syntax. This is about the UK's next General Election.
(Edited 9 seconds later.)
Syntax replied with this 10 years ago, 7 minutes later, 1 week after the original post[^] [v] #705,032
@previous (RWBY Rubarb? !!iNo3FkiZx)
You telling me Brexit will be of no consequence in the upcoming elections?
Say do you have a bridge you want to sell me?
You telling me Brexit will be of no consequence in the upcoming elections?
Say do you have a bridge you want to sell me?
RWBY Rubarb? !!iNo3FkiZx (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 4 minutes later, 1 week after the original post[^] [v] #705,037
Syntax replied with this 10 years ago, 11 minutes later, 1 week after the original post[^] [v] #705,044
RWBY Rubarb? !!iNo3FkiZx (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 1 minute later, 1 week after the original post[^] [v] #705,046
@previous (Syntax)
Going to place any money on the Conservatives winning the next UK election? The polls say they've got it locked down.
Going to place any money on the Conservatives winning the next UK election? The polls say they've got it locked down.
Syntax replied with this 10 years ago, 18 minutes later, 1 week after the original post[^] [v] #705,051
@previous (RWBY Rubarb? !!iNo3FkiZx)Nope I learned a bitter lesson going with Brexit. I said I wood not vote and then in an emotional break down I did. If not for Hillary beating Bernie by a landslide win I wood be in deep trouble and wood have to sell of of my cars and a lot lot more. I had bragging rights using Betfair for Hillary but lost 75% of that to my dumb as fuck Brexit vote.
I used common sense and the two years I minored in Law at UCLA taught me one important thing I 4GOT - Common Sense has no place in life's complex decisions.
I gave the Brits much to much respect - I may even pull back on full out plans to make my fortune again on USA elections. Our planet common sense wise is having a melt down.
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