Topic: Metæ I am all in with Cold Hard Cash for Hillary vs Bernie
Syntax started this discussion 10 years ago#52,793
Only recently have I had to give away 3 percent points because of the recent poll shifts here in Calif.
You have of course by now looked at news where Hillary is prenumptive Nominated
The "single most accurate poll operation of the last many years" is IBD/TIPP and they have Hillary Nationally over Bernie by a massive +14 points
British betting Market the very best one, has Hillary at 94.8% and up from yesterday and Bernie down to 3.6%
New Jersey tomorrow should be good for lulz before Calif results The most recent poll result has Hillary + 27% but my money for safe harbor is on +20% with 126 delegates but who's counting
Yes Calif has closed to
CBS News/YouGov Clinton +2
NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton +2
Field Clinton +2
Remarkable that all three agree and Yes that is with Margin of error, Neck n Neck 475 delegate's to be proportionally split.
On the down side of that is Five other people on Presidential ballot and a bunch of people registered for something called American Independent, with people thinking that made them Independent voters - They are in for one hell of a surprise - Green n Libertarian - Libertarian party and AIP has shot up in registrations
Here Latinos are way up in registrations - Not so much great for Bernie - Its said Bernie gets heartburn from Tacos and 2morrow is Taco Tuesday
Brits are betting on November currently:
Hillary 70.7% up 6 percent over the last few days
Trump 23.0% who has dropped 7 percent over the last few days
Sanders 3.6% and has been that way for a very long time now (rounded out)
Head Shrinks have the Goldwater rule, so they are not weighing in on Sanity of Trump
So YES I am heavily in and was close to hedging my bets with sudden rise of Bernie, and I no its not smart to go all in, so for the moment I am playing it like a roll of the dice and will try and get smarter as we get close to November
Around here IF I could legally bet with Surfers way younger than Ole Me - They are all in on Bernie - Can they be called Marks - I guess I will at least owe a few a lunch or something when their wallets are less filled.
And dats all I be saying about dat.
Of course you all get to see if I win or lose tomorrow - One hell of a lot of people have voted by mail and huge number of ballots will come in over the many days after Tuesday - That I do hate cause if its really close it could take days for how 475 delegates are SPLIT between Bernie and Hillary.
Metæ joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 28 minutes later, 40 minutes after the original post[^][v]#689,672
@OP
I quit watching the Democratic primary ages ago - it was a foregone conclusion. The only question is, does Sanders go quietly with dignity or does he take this all the way to the convention and go out with a bang? If I understand it right, Hillary's "win" is based on superdelegates which aren't final until the convention. You and I know Hillary has won but does Bernie? I mean in theory the superdelegates could change sides.
I remember a few months ago you kept talking about how in March 2012 Mitt Romney had already won a majority and how Trump was lagging re: previous Republicans. Amazing how Trump ended up winning his race 'first. It's taken AGES for Hillary to get rid of some cranky old socialist no one had even heard of before last year. Bernie's fighting her with one hand tied behind his back and she's only barely beating him.
Looked up some of the artist Horsey's comics and most made me cringe - but the Bernie related ones brought a smile to my face. Make sure to insult the Bernie Bros, call them childish and misogynistic so they'll come out and vote for Hillary in November!
Syntax (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 50 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^][v]#689,678
@previous (Metæ)
I have been so fucking wrong about Bernie - I figured that people wood catch on to the Free Education offer as the very Old -
A chicken in every pot and a car in every garage
It sure appealed to one hell of a lot of recent grads I play with daily when Surfing or at Qualcomm - NOT that there are all that many White people at Q - Huge number of H1B Visa's. And of course all have Debt from University.
Teens almost ready for Uni are trying to figure out how2 and not go bankrupt in the process So Bernie is their Salvation. Nor did I think anyone that old could look like a rock star to so many 23-30 year olds. Even the girls around here are for Bernie - But most are well educated and have high IQ's so they know not to expect Bernie to really win. Yet they are most willing to put money on Bernie -Nor and this is hypothetical - I am about to take money from people that cannot afford to lose it - Sure I am happy to take Brits and Aussies money - Just not about to over do it here locally.
Nor could I ever imagine a self described Socialist to have the following - Yet when I talk to people here about that - They are not anti Socialist or even really Anti Commie - Except for the history majors.
Its just not fair because I feel age wise disconnected and wonder how this came to be - American education leaves out one hell of a lot - Its also why Qualcomm and other Electronic companies that do Hardware design and software for Hardware - They want H1B visa Asians because there are courses they all take that are no longer taught in American Unis
For instance Antennas - In USA Engineer now graduates with perhaps they have a paragraph or two in text book. Just a huge number of topics covered in India or Pakistan - China - etc with talent not available here in USA - Good for me because with my Analog background which is no longer taught in USA Uni - Good for me biz wise
None of them vote of course BUT they sure are bright and have paid close attention to USA politics and many want to stay here and become citizens - Most will not be allowed to which is a crying shame
THEY DO INFLUENCE the White young engineers - And I not just talking about Qualcomm locally - Its all the huge Biology companies and here in SD the Navy is a Monster employer of OUTSIDE Engineering talent - Most of course end up being young white recent Grads - Because cheep and the H1B's cannot get security clearance to work for Navy - Well sure they can because they work for outside contractors as subcontractors miles away from the Classified stuff and THEY talk US politics the same way We White guys n a few girls talk about politics in Pakistan and China
Hillary is getting the Latino vote which of course was the cause of Romney to lose along with the put down of the poor people. Trump and Latinos? His best was to have pic taken eating that Taco Bowl
Yet I fully admit all it wood take is for FBI to find something ANYTHING that could screw things up Royally and Damn hell Bernie in most Polls Bernie again Trump Kicks ASS more better than Hillary.
So my money n No bet on this just n the News is Obama calling Bernie on phone today(yesterday) and Bernie in speeches has toned down somewhat about Hillary- So If News people have it right - Obama supports Hillary tomorrow Night or Wed and Bernie has some hard decisions to make based on how much popular vote outpaces his which so far is a LOT - If that continues to grow TODAY/Night
Can you tell I am ritting this multi-tasking with Work - Lots of start stops lost in train of thought and rambles - Work day was something Horrid and all one one hours sleep with a pager waking me up one hour after falling to sleep at 3 AM or so. Sunrise plane ride to Irvine and yelled at something terrible by client - The got bad info from a quality great internal manager and he was fired as I was walking out door - AND I have to find a way to get him back in job or it will make my life Hell -
OK work is almost done and can bill client and pour a tall drink and call it a night n watch some old tv series to zone out
tl;dr
Hillary is going to kick Bernies ass 2day - Bernie will go to Vermont and pour Maple syrup on Pancakes and figure out how to save face and turn other cheeks and put arms around Hillary or end up as toast after the election in Nov - At least I hope it goes that way- If not he will cost me money!!! And help Trump and dat be not good for my health
(Edited 1 minute later.)
Metæ replied with this 10 years ago, 23 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^][v]#689,680
@previous (Syntax) > Hillary is getting the Latino vote which of course was the cause of Romney to lose along with the put down of the poor people. Trump and Latinos? His best was to have pic taken eating that Taco Bowl
The Republicans will never ever ever ever get the Latino vote. Not even if they nominate Marco Rubio and Susana Martinez.
> Yet I fully admit all it wood take is for FBI to find something ANYTHING that could screw things up Royally
I'm not holding my breath. I know Obama keeps James Comey on a short leash.
Syntax (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 9 hours later, 11 hours after the original post[^][v]#689,742
@previous (Metæ) > I'm not holding my breath. I know Obama keeps James Comey on a short leash.
From personnel experience back when Oliver North vs Ronald Reagan - When there are a number (many people) working on a project & when bad news is
discovered: Someone is going to leak bad news. I sure did my part. So given the huge number of FBI guys on the case, for Email perusal, all it takes is just one Agent to go rouge and leak it to the News.
I think Obama has to have hands off - and others that work for him like Head of DOJ/Loretta Lynch. Not saying it cannot happen, because so many cover ups have occurred in the past and will continue.
Such a leak wood put Trump in with huuuuge win IF - And almost make me go broke for a while.
NOW I failed as it was so late last night when I posted this.
What is Nate Silver & Crewup2? Pic is Polls+ version Clinton 89% chance to win vs "Burned" 11%
Next pic is Nate Silver & Crew with Polls only version - Keep in mind the last 3 Polls have Clinton up +2 points over "Burned" Yet 538.com in "Not all Polls are created Equal"
Hillary 85% vs "Burned" 15% So lets see by 2nite/2morrow OR up2 72 hours After polls close, because that is the window for the last minute 2nite Mail in Ballots.
Syntax (OP) double-posted this 10 years ago, 26 seconds later, 11 hours after the original post[^][v]#689,743
Syntax (OP) triple-posted this 10 years ago, 17 hours later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#689,909
Metæ,
Grrr imgur and how it sticks post stamp static view of Gifs Click on Please
Sunrise has broken like the yoke of an egg, Because of such just one fantastic beyond fantastic new assets early evening/night/past/midnight/ Bless Hillary Clinton
I will not hit my Ocean a Blue until 6:30 AM or so with Surfboard in left hand and a paper cup filled with Champagne (for hair of the dog moment after last night) - If any clients insist on work being done, they will be told I will have to do it Impaired Because I cannot imagine stopping celebrating for rest of day n night AND then Thursday will be back to regular work.
Three polls had me so nervous with all showing same ugly results for Hillary - All only gave her +2 points which of course is margin of error neck to neck with Burned
Its going to be a couple days for final results because one hell of a lot of ballots need to come from post office to be counted.
She had to win by +5% to +6% for me to make a dime and currently she leads by about +13% 94.4% reporting with a bunch of mad as fuck people in LA County crying about voting problems and even one actor claiming stolen ballots shenanigans from Burned
So C Ya later and I sure hope you are pleased with last nights results. For Sure becky must be jumping for Joy
(Edited 1 minute later.)
brie !uXWPG0MygI joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 7 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#689,911
@previous (Syntax)
Do you make personal wagers on election results with hundreds of marksindividuals personally or do you use some sort of service?
Metæ replied with this 10 years ago, 11 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#689,912
@689,909 (Syntax)
Were you really worried? It was inevitable. I'm displeased though because I wanted it to be a tighter race between Hillary and Bernie. Bernie is a great guy and I genuinely like him but he's just not a fighter.
Will be a fun show to watch when the primaries are over. Cannot wait to see the VP picks. Fingers crossed for Trump-Christie and Clinton-Warren 2016
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 15 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#689,913
@previous (Metæ)
Lol. Christie has an approval rating of 26% in NJ. He is widely considered to be a failure of a governor who sold his soul and political career out for a chance at the national spotlight. In other words, he is one of the few people who can claim to be in the same ballpark of unfavorability as Clinton and Trump. There is no chance he gets the VP (I hope). I think he's gunning for AG under a Trump administration, since that's what he was under Bush and he is actually qualified for the job. I have no idea who Trump is gonna pick but it's gonna be a shitshow as usual.
(Edited 40 seconds later.)
RWBY Rhubarb? !!iNo3FkiZx joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 1 minute later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#689,914
@previous (Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU)
What if Trump picked you?
Metæ replied with this 10 years ago, 4 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#689,915
@689,913 (Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU)
He could pick Ronald McDonald and it wouldn't make any difference at this point. The Trump Train has no brakes and no driver.
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU replied with this 10 years ago, 2 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#689,916
@689,914 (RWBY Rhubarb? !!iNo3FkiZx)
I am constitutionally ineligible to be President so I can't be picked as VP :(. If he did I still wouldn't vote for us. @previous (Metæ)
Damlol. I will see you at the site of the trainwreck in November!
RWBY Rhubarb? !!iNo3FkiZx replied with this 10 years ago, 15 seconds later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#689,917
Although, I think McDonald as a VP would be a legitimately strong choice. He appeals to both corporations and the average American citizen.
Anonymous H joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 2 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#689,918
@previous (RWBY Rhubarb? !!iNo3FkiZx)
Mayor McCheese would be a more politically solid choice.
Metæ replied with this 10 years ago, 3 hours later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#689,933
@689,917 (RWBY Rhubarb? !!iNo3FkiZx)
My support of Trump is not in any way based on his policies (or lack thereof). It's more based on the fact that he trolls the hell out of Democrats, Republicans, and the media, all of which I dislike.
I think Trump is a superb actor (they didn't give him a TV show for nothing) and in office will be a terribly bland Reagan Republican with middle of the road policies. Trump's campaign isn't a campaign at all but a piece of performance art.
Metæ double-posted this 10 years ago, 1 minute later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#689,934
@689,918 (H)
He's been the mayor for like what, 40 years now? He's too establishment.
Maddy is !grate/DTHM joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 54 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#689,939
> Do you make personal wagers on election results with hundreds of marksindividuals personally or do you use some sort of service?
1st With a couple of minor exceptions - It is illegal for any resident to gamble on Elections in USA - Las Vegas cannot offer it. One of two you can look at is https://www.predictit.org/About/HowItWorks -
You asked me a direct question and of course I will answer it - Just putting this up so I don't get accused of providing advise, that is the cause of someone betting and getting into hot water. Plus I do not encourage putting money in anything if Anyone cannot afford to lose the money
So IF you are asking me if people place bets on elections, the same way they play poker? Of course. The best thing about this is people are so filled with emotion. They back their Fav and BLESS the Bernie fans, who have extra cash and here where so many White guys and gals work in Biotech that pays nice wages (except everyone of them has debt re University) So sure I play poker with them.
Because they are friends - not necessary close friends - So many are just acquaintances. Frankly and I tell them they are/were crazy to go all in on "Burned" beg to place bets nor do I want to play a lot with them and their money. Betting with Emotion instead of stacking the odds on your side just does not make any sense..Nor do I want a bad reputation here in Cardiff by the Sea. On net that's ok re game play for those who want to play that kind of game. Currently I wood rather not have to do that kinda game play I used to do so much - but if they want to fight well Sure LoL
Its better to find people one does not come into contact daily - A friend of a Friend said they no someone in Los Angles looking to add some excitement to what is already a crazy weird election..
> with hundreds of marksindividuals personally or do you use some sort of service?
It is illegal to do any one line betting in USA (I think New Jersey has an exception;Only for New Jersey residents - Sports betting in USA via Fantasy sports is?
In Eu and other parts of the world betting on elections and on line betting for sports and a big one currently is UK election to stay or exit Eu aka "Brexit"
I will leave it up to others to publish how accurate Betfair has been in past elections (Outstanding) and neck and neck in some cases with my go to guy Nate Silver @Crew at 538.com - Spot on in advance poo pooing the three most recent polls for Calif Burned vs Hillary.
Betfair requires PROOF of Address and A bank account OUTSIDE OF USA - Its not illegal for them to take your money, but they decided to be hard nosed after a competitor in 2012 is now out of business.
US Gov actively looks for people trying to use the dark web to place bets.
Of course the simple way around this is to make friends that trust you. Friends aka Net friends who will take your cold hard cash and place the bet for you - After all its they, not you placing the bet. You just have to make sure they pay tax as required and you pay that upfront.
Me I don't like doing stuff behind my Gov back - I have a couple3 bank accounts outside USA and ONLY because I forgot to close them after I left Qualcomm full time. I have a bank account in NSW Australia and an Address that Betfair recognizes as legit - My address has a mass of 6 Meter Satellite Dishes as well as a legit sink and kitchen and cots to sleep on and USA Made Bar-B-Q imported from San Diego because Aussies dumb as fuck about how to make one and even have Webber making them with a Flat Griddle - Good for Frying Eggs but - Anyway
Since I THINK I am legal by placing the bet outside the USA and its done by Proxy so I am not the one moving the Money from Bank to Betfair - Also there are many places with different odds to take your money. I do make sure IRS gets their share with a full disclosure and yes I have have to do due diligence with Australian Taxation Office.
tl;dr
Yes to your question
Syntax (OP) double-posted this 10 years ago, 3 minutes later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#690,010
Will be back tomorrow maybe to dig in and reply to others in thread - My work was total living hell on me on Monday - Tues and Today just Fantastic with 90& fun and 10% work that was actually FUN work
Anonymous B replied with this 10 years ago, 1 day later, 3 days after the original post[^][v]#690,338
@689,743 (Syntax)
I'm strangely reminded of your shriveled old Jew cock from that picture, and the polls don't lie.
Syntax replied with this 10 years ago, 43 minutes later, 3 days after the original post[^][v]#690,341
> Were you really worried? It was inevitable. I'm displeased though because I wanted it to be a tighter race between Hillary and Bernie. Bernie is a great guy and I genuinely like him but he's just not a fighter. > > Will be a fun show to watch when the primaries are over. Cannot wait to see the VP picks. Fingers crossed for Trump-Christie and Clinton-Warren 2016
Waz down on my beach which is currently loaded with alien creatures and I took down a huge bottle of Jack Daniels cause my fav Makers Mark is considered by the younger crowd somewhat to smooth LoL
Back UP cause of QUAKE EARTH Waves moved Beach moved and the news says the 5.4 inch Penis Quake was wayyyy far away in Dessert,
I have no clue how this plays out - Trump ain't stupid. I think he No's he has lost Latinos that RNC said they needed for future and blacks. So Trump in his wisdom figures he can rial up enough white racists and win with them
He now has MC's WDS backing him and you of course.
This is just so damn exciting as Trump figures he does not need to spend much and according to news this early AM he no pay dishwashers their pay cause well you figure out why he stiffs dishwashers - Perhaps cause they speak with funny accent which is not close to Milina funny accent
Damn Trump could end up making me somewhat well my Wallet will be more than pleased
Christie at best is not fit to be one of Trumps anal warts
@previous (B)
Polls don't lie? The full final polls of Calif had Clinton in the margin of error with Diktator Trump. You might look up how off the polls were AND find me a Poll that currently has Trump beating Clinton?