Topic: If the Donald becomes President...
Anonymous A started this discussion 10 years ago #50,527
We're all fucked.
Anonymous B joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 23 minutes later[^] [v] #655,610
Not if you're white racist.
Denmark guy !jJEom8Ii3E joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 3 minutes later, 27 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #655,612
@previous (B)
Calling trump supporters racist only helps trump because that way you make it personal to go and vote for him, who wants a president to win the election just because his/her supporters call the opposition racist?
Calling trump supporters racist only helps trump because that way you make it personal to go and vote for him, who wants a president to win the election just because his/her supporters call the opposition racist?
Anonymous B replied with this 10 years ago, 17 minutes later, 44 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #655,618
@previous (Denmark guy !jJEom8Ii3E)
> that way you make it personal to go and vote for him
Counterpoint: Obama was elected twice. So yes loads of people will vote for Trump. End result is that Hillary wins.
> that way you make it personal to go and vote for him
Counterpoint: Obama was elected twice. So yes loads of people will vote for Trump. End result is that Hillary wins.
Denmark guy !jJEom8Ii3E replied with this 10 years ago, 4 minutes later, 49 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #655,619
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 11 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #655,622
Syntax replied with this 10 years ago, 11 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #655,623
@655,619 (Denmark guy !jJEom8Ii3E)2016 Presidential Race
You're not looking in the right places. For instance
CNN/ORC Poll 2/24 - 2/27 Clinton 52 Trump 44 Clinton +8
Polls are sorta ok but far better are Three sources that were far more accurate. One that is most outstanding - Beyond amazing - For instance back in 2004 it was the most accurate in prediction who won and by how much - They also picked 50 out of 50 states - that beat my Favorite predictor Nate Silver who only got 50 out of 51 states because he was off by 1%
Betfair has very interesting odds currently on UK vs EU - Wish I new more about that so I could make some money on that one
(Edited 42 seconds later.)
Big Daddy Derek !Uvm54ORbmo joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 6 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #655,626
@previous (Syntax)
Is Betfair a 15 minute radius drive from that dead end, roach infested, single lightbulb, peeling wallpaper, single room dwelling, you currently reside in?
Is Betfair a 15 minute radius drive from that dead end, roach infested, single lightbulb, peeling wallpaper, single room dwelling, you currently reside in?
Metæ joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 19 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #655,631
Looks like "Donald Trump's Six Stages of Doom" is turning into Nate Silver's Five Stages of Grief
Denial — The first reaction is denial. In this stage individuals believe the polling is somehow mistaken, and cling to a false, preferable reality.
It's just a publicity stunt!
The high poll numbers reflect media coverage; real voters want a serious candidate like Jeb!
Trump has a ceiling of 30%
Anger — When the individual recognizes that denial cannot continue, it becomes frustrated, especially at proximate individuals. Certain psychological responses of a person undergoing this phase would be: "Why me? It's not fair!"; "How can this happen to me?"; '"Who is to blame?"; "Why would this happen?".
Trump will destroy America!!!1!
KKK! David Duke! His real name is Drumpf!
You can't say that!! He has gone TOO FAR this time!!
Bargaining — The third stage involves the hope that the individual can stump the Trump. People facing more stumpable candidates can bargain or seek compromise.
We'll just sit tight and see how Trump likes a brokered convention!
All Rubio has to do is go from third to first place and win a majority on every state on Super Tuesday
If Cruz drops out and Rubio collects all of Cruz's, Carson's, Bush's, Christie's, Fiorina's, etc, etc and half of Trump's voters...
If Rubio starts making insults like Trump, people will see him as an alpha male.
Depression — "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?"; "Trump will be sworn in soon, so what's the point?"; "I miss the Obama years, why go on?"
During the fourth stage, the individual becomes saddened by the mathematical probability of a Trump presidency. In this state, the individual may become silent, refuse visitors and spend much of the time mournful and sullen.
America is doomed.
I'll move to Canada if Trump wins
But Nate Silver called 49 out of 50 states in 2012
Acceptance — "It's going to be okay."; "I can't fight it, I may as well prepare for it."; "Nothing is impossible, just do it."
In this last stage, individuals embrace making America great again. Sanders voters may precede Hillary and Rubio voters in this state, which typically comes with a calm, optimistic view for the nation, and a stable condition of emotions.
Denial — The first reaction is denial. In this stage individuals believe the polling is somehow mistaken, and cling to a false, preferable reality.
It's just a publicity stunt!
The high poll numbers reflect media coverage; real voters want a serious candidate like Jeb!
Trump has a ceiling of 30%
Anger — When the individual recognizes that denial cannot continue, it becomes frustrated, especially at proximate individuals. Certain psychological responses of a person undergoing this phase would be: "Why me? It's not fair!"; "How can this happen to me?"; '"Who is to blame?"; "Why would this happen?".
Trump will destroy America!!!1!
KKK! David Duke! His real name is Drumpf!
You can't say that!! He has gone TOO FAR this time!!
Bargaining — The third stage involves the hope that the individual can stump the Trump. People facing more stumpable candidates can bargain or seek compromise.
We'll just sit tight and see how Trump likes a brokered convention!
All Rubio has to do is go from third to first place and win a majority on every state on Super Tuesday
If Cruz drops out and Rubio collects all of Cruz's, Carson's, Bush's, Christie's, Fiorina's, etc, etc and half of Trump's voters...
If Rubio starts making insults like Trump, people will see him as an alpha male.
Depression — "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?"; "Trump will be sworn in soon, so what's the point?"; "I miss the Obama years, why go on?"
During the fourth stage, the individual becomes saddened by the mathematical probability of a Trump presidency. In this state, the individual may become silent, refuse visitors and spend much of the time mournful and sullen.
America is doomed.
I'll move to Canada if Trump wins
But Nate Silver called 49 out of 50 states in 2012
Acceptance — "It's going to be okay."; "I can't fight it, I may as well prepare for it."; "Nothing is impossible, just do it."
In this last stage, individuals embrace making America great again. Sanders voters may precede Hillary and Rubio voters in this state, which typically comes with a calm, optimistic view for the nation, and a stable condition of emotions.
(Edited 1 minute later.)
Big Daddy Derek !Uvm54ORbmo joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 21 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #655,633
Metæ replied with this 10 years ago, 7 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,635
@655,623 (Syntax)
Also remember Nate Silver made his famous 49 out of 50 state call on election day. It's not like he called it weeks or months before.
Also remember Nate Silver made his famous 49 out of 50 state call on election day. It's not like he called it weeks or months before.
Syntax replied with this 10 years ago, 21 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,637
@655,631 (Metæ)C the terrific thing about all of this is WE get to again keep track of what happens and how it happened. Its true that back in 2015 Nate gave Trump less than 9% chance of making it all the way to the nomination - But that was in published chat which was not based on Statistics/Math. Opinion only along with the staff of 538.com
So now WE as in You n Me n very few others here can look at Nate Silver Sam Wong (does Wong ever get it Rong?) and Betfair. Me? Since Betfair has UK staying in EU with vote in June - that's perhaps a good benchmark? Wish I new more about UK vs EU pull out.
So currently the screen cap are the poll numbers that Nate uses in raw form - after all his math always ends up crunching the raw numbers and than the history of poll accuracy - for instance
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/
The Math he uses differs from the other accuracy hero Sam Wong at Princeton. They even disagree with each others methods a bit YET end up being the most accurate over a lot and thats a LOT of Years now. I bet Betfair betters use their numbers cause after all how else can they end up being as accurate or 1% more accurate on occasions. (Nate 50/51 vis Betfair 50/50)
So today - Silvers team says - "Donald Trump
We think Trump will fare best in states and congressional districts with small shares of college graduates. His ideal path would depend on a broad coalition of Southern, Midwestern and industrial Northeastern states."
OH - Besides the public polls we all can view - 538.com uses Morning Consult which the candidates use as private paid for surveys - Highly regarded by all - Some that you and I cannot directly view -
To see how the Math changes the raw numbers do this
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/texas-republican/
Click on Polls only and then Polls Plus Forecast (math crunching) Often but not in this case the results are opposite my a wide margin.
And not trying to be so hard on Nate cause - In 2008, he correctly called all 35 Senate races and the winners of the presidential contests in 49 of 50 states.
Metæ now remember In 2012, I think in, like, the first 7 states that voted, for the Republicans, the candidate who was ahead in the polls a week before the race, lost.
So you don't see Nate calling out any exact numbers on how Trump is going to do by tomorrow. Even if we had his forecast he is clear that because say Rick "Sanitarium" was winning the last time - Huge Fail
Anonymous G joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 9 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,641
Syntax replied with this 10 years ago, 3 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,642
@655,635 (Metæ)
> Also remember Nate Silver made his famous 49 out of 50 state call on election day. It's not like he called it weeks or months before.
er You made me go back to get the actually dates he 1st forecast the winner WHICH I wood have guessed around June
So if its ok with YOU? Lets hang in until June 6 or so and lets see what Nate does this tyme.
> Also remember Nate Silver made his famous 49 out of 50 state call on election day. It's not like he called it weeks or months before.
er You made me go back to get the actually dates he 1st forecast the winner WHICH I wood have guessed around June
Silver published the first iteration of his 2012 general election forecasts on June 7, 2012. According to the model, at that time Barack Obama was projected to win 291 electoral votes—21 more than the 270 required for a majority. Obama then had an estimated 61.8% chance of winning a majority.
On the morning of the November 6, 2012, presidential election, the final update of Silver's model at 10:10 A.M. gave President Barack Obama a 90.9% chance of winning a majority of the 538 electoral votes
On the morning of the November 6, 2012, presidential election, the final update of Silver's model at 10:10 A.M. gave President Barack Obama a 90.9% chance of winning a majority of the 538 electoral votes
So if its ok with YOU? Lets hang in until June 6 or so and lets see what Nate does this tyme.
Metæ replied with this 10 years ago, 1 minute later, 2 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,643
@655,637 (Syntax)
> 2008, he correctly called all 35 Senate races and the winners of the presidential contests in 49 of 50 states.
Again, he made his calls on election day which is neat but not the same as calling it months before the election. Nate's crystal ball is just as fuzzy as mine except in the very near term. What did Nate's estimates look like on 3/01/12?
> 2008, he correctly called all 35 Senate races and the winners of the presidential contests in 49 of 50 states.
Again, he made his calls on election day which is neat but not the same as calling it months before the election. Nate's crystal ball is just as fuzzy as mine except in the very near term. What did Nate's estimates look like on 3/01/12?
Syntax replied with this 10 years ago, 4 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,644
@previous (Metæ)
> What did Nate's estimates look like on 3/01/12?
You won't get that from him or Sam Wong today - As the post that followed shows - It wasn't until June 6th that he made his winning prediction for 12. And today with all the crazy White Racist stuff and PT Barnum - Its crazy to think anyone has a crystal ball to figure out if USA fucks up or not - After all that is how we ended up with Bush Jr. I mean every now and then USA does fuck up royally and no Crystal ball can 4C such
> What did Nate's estimates look like on 3/01/12?
You won't get that from him or Sam Wong today - As the post that followed shows - It wasn't until June 6th that he made his winning prediction for 12. And today with all the crazy White Racist stuff and PT Barnum - Its crazy to think anyone has a crystal ball to figure out if USA fucks up or not - After all that is how we ended up with Bush Jr. I mean every now and then USA does fuck up royally and no Crystal ball can 4C such
Metæ replied with this 10 years ago, 5 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,645
@655,642 (Syntax)
> According to the model, at that time Barack Obama was projected to win 291 electoral votes—21 more than the 270 required for a majority
Quick look C and Eye sea Obama got 332. Ten Myle back of envelope calculation says Nate was 14% off. I'm not dissing Nate here but people keep citing the election day 49/50 call like he predicted it months in advance.
It's like, it's a lot easier to call a football game when there's five minutes left on the clock. Saying Nate Silver called the last two football games at the end of the fourth quarter with less than five minutes on the clock doesn't seem relevant when we're in a totally different football game and not even to halftime yet.
> According to the model, at that time Barack Obama was projected to win 291 electoral votes—21 more than the 270 required for a majority
Quick look C and Eye sea Obama got 332. Ten Myle back of envelope calculation says Nate was 14% off. I'm not dissing Nate here but people keep citing the election day 49/50 call like he predicted it months in advance.
It's like, it's a lot easier to call a football game when there's five minutes left on the clock. Saying Nate Silver called the last two football games at the end of the fourth quarter with less than five minutes on the clock doesn't seem relevant when we're in a totally different football game and not even to halftime yet.
HelterSkelter !ncKvmqq0Bs joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 13 minutes later, 3 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,647
It'll be hard not to vote for him, have you seen his hair? Glorious.
Syntax replied with this 10 years ago, 5 minutes later, 3 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,649
@655,645 (Metæ)
14% off LOL - The deal is the reason is he got so much attention from that - Other than Betfair which I gota believe with all my heart n soul cause I have in the past had a lot of cash riding on the outcome and will have a bit more this tyme or even a Lot more -
Who else can you find that at 10AM that morning got it right? Go on and try cause I just hit Google looking what happened at Noon re forecasts and how RONG they got it -
Its like going to a Casino - You want to no how you are going to do at Midnight with your wallet and you find a way to get that result at 10AM
Betting YOU wood love to have that kinda tool.
Bottom line for the fun of it will B 2C if Nate and group calls it in early June far in advance as to who wins in Nov.
And back to your Football game - Perhaps you are not aware? Nate made his nuts in sports forecasting wayyyy prior to getting his math in2 elections. PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) is a statistical system that projects the future performance of hitters and pitchers.
Now talk about using Math to predict the future of a High School baseball or basketball player - He wrote a book and made millions - But that said when he attempted to try forecasting a UK election he fucked up - 2Sure not perfect. 4 sure I could lose all the winnings of the past cause I play it forward - Might hold back 20% depending on how I do getting money back from Harvard stocks -
14% off LOL - The deal is the reason is he got so much attention from that - Other than Betfair which I gota believe with all my heart n soul cause I have in the past had a lot of cash riding on the outcome and will have a bit more this tyme or even a Lot more -
Who else can you find that at 10AM that morning got it right? Go on and try cause I just hit Google looking what happened at Noon re forecasts and how RONG they got it -
Its like going to a Casino - You want to no how you are going to do at Midnight with your wallet and you find a way to get that result at 10AM
Betting YOU wood love to have that kinda tool.
Bottom line for the fun of it will B 2C if Nate and group calls it in early June far in advance as to who wins in Nov.
And back to your Football game - Perhaps you are not aware? Nate made his nuts in sports forecasting wayyyy prior to getting his math in2 elections. PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) is a statistical system that projects the future performance of hitters and pitchers.
Now talk about using Math to predict the future of a High School baseball or basketball player - He wrote a book and made millions - But that said when he attempted to try forecasting a UK election he fucked up - 2Sure not perfect. 4 sure I could lose all the winnings of the past cause I play it forward - Might hold back 20% depending on how I do getting money back from Harvard stocks -
Metæ replied with this 10 years ago, 6 hours later, 10 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,706
@previous (Syntax)This is the other problem with Nate Silver's "OMG YOU GUISE 49 OUT OF 50 STATES!!!1!" call. Most states are easily predictable. I don't think anyone was wondering which way way California or Texas were going to go. What Nate Silver did was call most of the swing states (about ten) on the day of the election which means his crystal ball only sees a few hours into the future. You can't say really say he "called" states like New York or Arizona because everyone knew where they were going.
Re: map. Dark red/blue=went Dem/Rep in 2000,04,08,12. Light red/light blue went dem/rep in 3/4 elections. Purple: swing states. Nate Silver gets zero points for calling the dark red/dark blue states. All he called with the purple and light red/blue states, and still missed one of those. On election day.
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 1 minute later, 10 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,708
Sheila LaBoof joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 7 minutes later, 10 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,713
pundits with the letters rearranged is stupid
Metæ replied with this 10 years ago, 2 minutes later, 10 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,714
@655,708 (Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU)
> How many did other pundits guess correctly? How many did you?
I don't know. I did get at least all the solid red/blue states right so I called 40 out 50 states! Where's my award? I don't have a problem with Nate Silver and he's a better statistician than I, but if his "49 out of 50!" call was reformulated as "he predicted which way 9 out of the 10 uncertain states would vote, on the day of the election" I wouldn't be having this argument. People act like Nate Silver called it months in advance.
> How many did other pundits guess correctly? How many did you?
I don't know. I did get at least all the solid red/blue states right so I called 40 out 50 states! Where's my award? I don't have a problem with Nate Silver and he's a better statistician than I, but if his "49 out of 50!" call was reformulated as "he predicted which way 9 out of the 10 uncertain states would vote, on the day of the election" I wouldn't be having this argument. People act like Nate Silver called it months in advance.
(Edited 3 minutes later.)
Anonymous K joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 15 minutes later, 10 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,721
> If
Not if you want to make USAmerica grate again
Not if you want to make USAmerica grate again
Syntax replied with this 10 years ago, 2 minutes later, 10 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,723
@655,714 (Metæ)
Where did I say 538 predicted the win vs loss for SuperTuesday?
Me thinks you missed this most important point.
Betting that Nate is going to wait until about the same date this year to predict the over all winner based on electoral votes.
SOOOOOO at this moment in tyme the only Predictor with a couple of decades of accuracy is Betfair - Site has ground to a gruel over the last hour -
Hillary 67% Trump 26% - Cruz has dropped off the betting map currently - One hour ago he was in - even with his two current wins and Texas is huge - And Betfair had him as the winner in Texas
Ooooops Betfair got one wrong
Democratic Massachusetts Primary Betfair predicts that there is a 60% chance of Bernie Sanders to win
Where did I say 538 predicted the win vs loss for SuperTuesday?
Me thinks you missed this most important point.
Silver published the first iteration of his 2012 general election forecasts on June 7, 2012. According to the model, at that time Barack Obama was projected to win 291 electoral votes—21 more than the 270 required for a majority. Obama then had an estimated 61.8% chance of winning a majority.
On the morning of the November 6, 2012, presidential election, the final update of Silver's model at 10:10 A.M. gave President Barack Obama a 90.9% chance of winning a majority of the 538 electoral votes
On the morning of the November 6, 2012, presidential election, the final update of Silver's model at 10:10 A.M. gave President Barack Obama a 90.9% chance of winning a majority of the 538 electoral votes
Betting that Nate is going to wait until about the same date this year to predict the over all winner based on electoral votes.
SOOOOOO at this moment in tyme the only Predictor with a couple of decades of accuracy is Betfair - Site has ground to a gruel over the last hour -
Hillary 67% Trump 26% - Cruz has dropped off the betting map currently - One hour ago he was in - even with his two current wins and Texas is huge - And Betfair had him as the winner in Texas
Ooooops Betfair got one wrong
Democratic Massachusetts Primary Betfair predicts that there is a 60% chance of Bernie Sanders to win
Syntax double-posted this 10 years ago, 3 minutes later, 10 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,725
Now I should add. Romney paid a lot of hard cash for the best private polls - He really believed up to just one hour b4 Obama was declared the winner that HE was going to win. So he was shocked when he lost - He did get a heads up the one hour b4 from a private polling service that followed the exist polls. He could have saved a lot of money by just following Nate or Sam Wang (spelled him rong on all abouve
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 6 minutes later, 10 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,729
Metæ replied with this 10 years ago, 4 minutes later, 10 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,732
Syntax replied with this 10 years ago, 2 minutes later, 10 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,733
@655,729 (A)
No one and I mean NO ONE has a clue wot Mr. Drumpf really supports. Other than planned parenthood minus the minor support of abortions. He is totally foggy and says Trust Me. I can make deals.
Just read a new fail not in the news
No one and I mean NO ONE has a clue wot Mr. Drumpf really supports. Other than planned parenthood minus the minor support of abortions. He is totally foggy and says Trust Me. I can make deals.
Just read a new fail not in the news
An article in the Washington Post looks at his failed mortgage business. In 2006, when many economists were getting very worried about the overheated real estate market, Trump started the business, saying that real estate was going up, up, up. His company dealt in both residential and commercial mortgages. Trump made fun of people who talked about possible gloom and doom in real estate. Technically the company was a mortgage broker rather than a mortgage lender, so it did not have to comply with the stricter rules that apply to lenders and there is less of a paper trail to follow now.
The company lasted a year and a half, going belly up in 2007. Trump blamed everyone but himself for the fiasco. Then he made a deal with Meridian Mortgage in which it was renamed Trump Financial. It, too, went under.
The company lasted a year and a half, going belly up in 2007. Trump blamed everyone but himself for the fiasco. Then he made a deal with Meridian Mortgage in which it was renamed Trump Financial. It, too, went under.
Anonymous K replied with this 10 years ago, 2 minutes later, 10 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,736
@previous (Syntax)
He just needed his money properly cleaned and laundered through those business ventures.
He just needed his money properly cleaned and laundered through those business ventures.
Syntax replied with this 10 years ago, 3 minutes later, 10 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,739
@previous (K)
LoL - Yea and with so many years of IRS Audits with fear that the reasons for audits end up pubic - Betting he will keep his attorneys busy holding out until after Nov7 and longer - Pull a Nixon in order to attempt to win
LoL - Yea and with so many years of IRS Audits with fear that the reasons for audits end up pubic - Betting he will keep his attorneys busy holding out until after Nov7 and longer - Pull a Nixon in order to attempt to win
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 10 years ago, 9 minutes later, 11 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,740
Donald Trump participated in WWE's WrestleMania event as well as hosted from his own casino resort both WrestleMania 4 and 5.Does this mean that Trump endorses homosexuality?
Anonymous L joined in and replied with this 10 years ago, 2 minutes later, 11 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,741
Syntax replied with this 10 years ago, 2 minutes later, 11 hours after the original post[^] [v] #655,742
@previous (L)
Exactly
CNN - Not one mention of Carson -... until a black analyst suggests Carson is not running and is in it only to sell books and get on the speaking circuit.
Exactly
CNN - Not one mention of Carson -... until a black analyst suggests Carson is not running and is in it only to sell books and get on the speaking circuit.