Topic: Obama now @ 50.6% +2.2% over Romney ...270 E votes required to win; Obama has 305.3 Electoral Votes
Anonymous A started this discussion 14 years ago #23,205
http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/Place a bet? current odds
Obama 66.7% to win
Romney 33.7% to shed tears of a clown.
2 Days 16 Hours 28 Minutes to go.
Anonymous B joined in and replied with this 14 years ago, 6 hours later[^] [v] #363,258
Why do you post this stupid shit Syntax nobody cars about your copypasta and we can all use mouse 101 to go to 538 on our own
squeegee !firstkPE1Q joined in and replied with this 14 years ago, 1 hour later, 7 hours after the original post[^] [v] #363,264
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 14 years ago, 31 minutes later, 7 hours after the original post[^] [v] #363,269
@363,258 (B)
Ifen you were any good with mouse 101 you wooda nota clicka
Buuuuuuuuuuutttttttttttttttttttt ua diiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiddddddddddddddddddddd
tl;dr? Rat caught in my trap.
Ifen you were any good with mouse 101 you wooda nota clicka
Buuuuuuuuuuutttttttttttttttttttt ua diiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiddddddddddddddddddddd
tl;dr? Rat caught in my trap.
Anonymous A (OP) double-posted this 14 years ago, 54 seconds later, 7 hours after the original post[^] [v] #363,271
Anonymous D joined in and replied with this 14 years ago, 40 minutes later, 8 hours after the original post[^] [v] #363,276
Damn, polls are within the margin of error yet Obama gets 2 to 1 over Romney. Intraders are stupid.
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 14 years ago, 22 minutes later, 8 hours after the original post[^] [v] #363,283
@previous (D)I feel your pain. HowSomEver look at this and find a hole in it (none)
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/oct-26-state-poll-averages-usually-call-election-right/#more-36761
"there was not a single instance in the database where a candidate lost a state when he held a lead of more than 3.5 points in the polling average at this point in time. (Bill Clinton, in 1992, lost Texas despite leading George H.W. Bush there by that margin.)
It is possible to generalize these findings by means of a probit regression model, where the independent variable is the candidate’s lead in the polling average and the dependent one is whether he won or lost the state."
In Ohio, however, there are not just three polls: roughly a dozen polling firms, rather, have surveyed the state over the past 10 days.
OHIO for example Currently is Obama +2.9% with 10 Very Current Polls & Romney is up in only one of the 10 So the Probability is 87% for Obama taking OHIO away from Romney
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-ohio-president-romney-vs-obama?gem
So Anon D in just a very few days you can look at the numbers and try and find an error on Probability theory falling short - Try and find one election where it did in USA using Silvers math - so far nada
And Intraders were far more better in 2004 -2008 then any of the polling firms but NOT perfect because they made a little error in 2010 Congress race's. Not a big deal but not perfect as 2004-08
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probit_model
(Edited 2 minutes later.)
Anonymous D replied with this 14 years ago, 1 hour later, 10 hours after the original post[^] [v] #363,319
@previous (A)
Dude, you still don't know what I'm saying. The prediction market is out of line with the probability predicted by polling data. 52%/48% polling doesn't equate to a 66% probability of success.
Dude, you still don't know what I'm saying. The prediction market is out of line with the probability predicted by polling data. 52%/48% polling doesn't equate to a 66% probability of success.
Anonymous A (OP) joined in and replied with this 14 years ago, 25 minutes later, 10 hours after the original post[^] [v] #363,326
Anonymous F joined in and replied with this 14 years ago, 15 minutes later, 11 hours after the original post[^] [v] #363,329
@363,319 (D)
> implying immediate polling scenario should be weighted that much more heavily than long term weighting of observations
> implying immediate polling scenario should be weighted that much more heavily than long term weighting of observations
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 14 years ago, 1 hour later, 12 hours after the original post[^] [v] #363,342
@363,319 (D)
> Dude, you still don't know what I'm saying. The prediction market is out of line with the probability predicted by polling data. 52%/48% polling doesn't equate to a 66% probability of success
I do know what you are talking about. Your Mistrake is simple and its the one CNN and Fox news are using as well so don't feel to bad about your Mistrake.
Yes U would be correct IF That number you're looking at is HOW Intrade betters come up with the ODDS Result - It Ain't. The 52%/48% could even reverse to 48%/52% and get this the odds could be exactly the same or even better for Obama. Again its not about that number and who has more or less to arrive at the Betting Odds - Frankly the popular Vote has nada to do with the Odds shown.
That number means very little to less then nothing NOW - Its all about 11 States called the battle ground stages like Ohio and if you look at Ohio and Iowa and Nevada and 9 other key states as the betters are doing which includes Yours truly - Well given not one single time in History of USA has any Republican Won the Prezzzy without Winning OHIO. It could be done this time with a combo of other key states but Romney is doing Shit in far far far too many. So far behind in say Nevada & Wisconsin Dude look at the list of Key states and look at say just this one list of polls and Graph and angle of the Dangle
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-wisconsin-president-romney-vs-obama?gem
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-ohio-president-romney-vs-obama?gem
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-nevada-president-romney-vs-obama?gem
Click this to see each one and progress Romney ain't making anywhere were it counts to win the magic 535 Votes which is all that counts cause your popular vote numbers mean nada by law for USA as total
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map
> Dude, you still don't know what I'm saying. The prediction market is out of line with the probability predicted by polling data. 52%/48% polling doesn't equate to a 66% probability of success
I do know what you are talking about. Your Mistrake is simple and its the one CNN and Fox news are using as well so don't feel to bad about your Mistrake.
Yes U would be correct IF That number you're looking at is HOW Intrade betters come up with the ODDS Result - It Ain't. The 52%/48% could even reverse to 48%/52% and get this the odds could be exactly the same or even better for Obama. Again its not about that number and who has more or less to arrive at the Betting Odds - Frankly the popular Vote has nada to do with the Odds shown.
That number means very little to less then nothing NOW - Its all about 11 States called the battle ground stages like Ohio and if you look at Ohio and Iowa and Nevada and 9 other key states as the betters are doing which includes Yours truly - Well given not one single time in History of USA has any Republican Won the Prezzzy without Winning OHIO. It could be done this time with a combo of other key states but Romney is doing Shit in far far far too many. So far behind in say Nevada & Wisconsin Dude look at the list of Key states and look at say just this one list of polls and Graph and angle of the Dangle
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-wisconsin-president-romney-vs-obama?gem
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-ohio-president-romney-vs-obama?gem
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-nevada-president-romney-vs-obama?gem
Click this to see each one and progress Romney ain't making anywhere were it counts to win the magic 535 Votes which is all that counts cause your popular vote numbers mean nada by law for USA as total
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map
Anonymous A (OP) double-posted this 14 years ago, 2 minutes later, 12 hours after the original post[^] [v] #363,343
Ashe !bbKEtchUp. joined in and replied with this 14 years ago, 5 hours later, 18 hours after the original post[^] [v] #363,400
@363,283 (A)
> there was not a single instance in the database where a candidate lost a sta-
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/electoral_precedent.png
> there was not a single instance in the database where a candidate lost a sta-
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/electoral_precedent.png
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 14 years ago, 4 hours later, 23 hours after the original post[^] [v] #363,421
@previous (Ashe !bbKEtchUp.)
Wzzzzzzz out all nite danzzzzzing and
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/electoral_precedent.png makes sense in a Meta enviro
Wzzzzzzz out all nite danzzzzzing and
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/electoral_precedent.png makes sense in a Meta enviro