> Romney can't even close Ohio, Nevada or Colorado. > > Dems may as well stay home on election night.
Where I live my vote does not count re Prezzy. A huge book of other ballot items to vote on. Pissed me off a few minutes ago when head of Gallup was on business radio saying not much chance of E-College making the final decision this year. I cannot wait for Gallup to get a poor grade on Nov 7th. Polls do get graded and Gallup never does much better then a C grade.
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 14 years ago, 28 minutes later, 38 minutes after the original post[^][v]#360,408
@previous (B)
Rassmussen will be best pollster once again. Bill Maher will be butthurt.
Anonymous B replied with this 14 years ago, 25 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^][v]#360,412
I have one on a Spread sheet for 2008 so would have to do a image of it to show ya - but frankly
Rasmussen Reports
Pew
GWU/Battleground
Ipsos/McClatchy
CNN/Opinion Research
All came out re spreads on popular vote so damn close by .5 points. ---ANYWAY other data I have shows CNN with the best 2008 when it came to who would win Senate seats with about 99% accuracy missing only one state by 1 point and that one took about 4 months to resolve in courts - Minnesota if I remember correctly.
But when You or as I was once saying Rassmussen is so great?????? I mean they got it right RIGHT? Not so fast.
He keeps track of How they do that and it looks like Rassmussen and others adjust the final last minute numbers towards the end to come out looking good GREAT. And he has lots of proof.
His track record is currently #1 for 2004 - 2008 with two others almost as good as his.
tl;dr?
Nate Silver says today Obama 71% Chance of Winning Romney 29.0% Chance of Winning with Obama 290.8 Electoral Votes Romney 247.2.
Rassmussen says Romney today is 50% popular vote Obama 47% and E-college numbers - I am not about to even print them out cause something rotten in Denmark.
My best guess is that Rassmussen has about 9 days to slowly correct his numbers so he comes out on top again and all he has to do is follow Nate Silvers numbers lololol
Ask me for the competitors of Silver who have super track records In Advance of Nov 6.
Oh and then there is the Betting Market that usually gets it right wayyyyyy in advance like Intrade.
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 14 years ago, 1 hour later, 2 hours after the original post[^][v]#360,489
@previous (B)
NY Times? The motherload of all liberally biased rags? You should know better.
Aren't they still paying Paul Krugman for his perpetually wrong economic non-analysis?
(Edited 25 seconds later.)
Anonymous B replied with this 14 years ago, 27 minutes later, 3 hours after the original post[^][v]#360,493
@previous (A)
Hey I am going out to Surf my Ocean a Blue.
Nate Silver was doing his 538 Blog and getting paid a fortune for Statistical Math computer Sims with Baseball and you can look that up. New York Times brought him on board way after he started his forecasts on elections.
I have no idea on his own bias - Rassmussen as you must know used to be paid by the Republican party and still is on their payroll re the Front end of his business. He is upfront about that.
All I care about is track records - Who was the best in the past? Rass looked best but NOT if you looked back a full Month prior to Nov election day. Later if you ask because my Ocean a Blue is calling me - can show you documentation of his 2008 - 2010 Election forecast accuracy.
You mention Economic analysis - Bottom line stuff!!!! That is what counts. So sure pay attention to Rassmussen and I do daily. But his end game Ain't going to be what it looks like Today. He wants that A grade again so he will simply Adjust the numbers. I have a LOT LOT LOT of money riding on this. Sure I could lose, but hey Life is a gamble. Have you looked at the Gaming biz on elections?
Go back and look at how Gaming did in 2000 2004 2008 - Intrade was ULTRA Accurate in 2004 2008 - Beyond even Rassmussens numbers. Gaming and there are several cool sites to look at ends up agreeing Mostly with just one Forecaster - Silver -
Oh and Nytimes Crossword puzzle - Where is the bias? Only on dummies that can do Mon Tue but not Rest of week. Rant over.
Even if Silver were on Dem payroll - Look at his numbers Two Months ago - then see how he does on Nov 6 - and I said there are two others much like him doing what he does and they do it more better then anyone else. My Money is riding on this so don't make me wrong here - In 2010 Intrade blew it lol
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 14 years ago, 18 hours later, 21 hours after the original post[^][v]#360,774
@previous (B)
Meh, gaming. I'm not sure how I feel about it.
You see for gaming to provide accurate predictions the gamers need to be a representative sample of likley voters. In the past that's been the case. But now that prediction markets have matured they've attracted professional traders to the platform. I think that skews a bit toward the Wall Street crowd.
Anonymous C joined in and replied with this 14 years ago, 3 hours later, 1 day after the original post[^][v]#360,831
Intrade a couple of days ago became an outliner and lots of money was made by those who were paying attention (US Citizens can only use it with offshore accounts or have a friend in Eu do the deed)
That is the only Legal Presidential option I know of. An experiment and the money in or out is much smaller. Its a Fed test case as you can see. In 2010 as I said before Intrade blew it. So maybe you are right re 2012 not being Representative - However a quick look back at Bush vs Gore - not so sure 2012 is any different. Just different States as players and Florida may still be on.
What was it? 528 votes in Florida decided the USA election - need to verify my memory on number.
If you want to see how Super Intrade was in 2008 just ask - Much better by 10 Miles then anyone else.