Anonymous A started this discussion 14 years ago#22,670
How fucking hysterical will it be if it turns out the unskewedpolls.com guy's predictions turn out to have been right all along. LOLOL. That will mean some independent dude is outperforming the mainstream media and supposedly professional polling outfits.
Seriously, that'd be some lulzy shit when you think about it. LOLOL.
Anonymous B joined in and replied with this 14 years ago, 15 minutes later[^][v]#355,838
Is there a page where he explains the math he is doing to get his numbers? Most of the explanations found on his site just seem to be ramblings about MSM conspiracies.
Anonymous C joined in and replied with this 14 years ago, 37 minutes later, 53 minutes after the original post[^][v]#355,848
> How fucking hysterical will it be if it turns out the unskewedpolls.com guy's predictions turn out to have been right all along. LOLOL. That will mean some independent dude is outperforming the mainstream media and supposedly professional polling outfits. > > Seriously, that'd be some lulzy shit when you think about it. LOLOL.
I look at about every other day for lulz. Most amazing is that he even UnSkewes the Republican leaning Rasmussen (Who's history is very accurate) So he jacks up Rasmussens numbers lol.
@previous (B)
There are multiple pages so he buries his methods but if you look at left side of page - back a few weeks ago there was a general mythology albeit rambling. http://www.unskewedpolls.com/
He attacks all the polls - even other Republican based sites such as TPM & they admit they are total Republican in nature. HowSomEver the one thing he has not touched is
Intrade is in Ireland and USA citizens have to have a offshore bank account to use it or a friend, perhaps from MC who can place bets. Iowa.edu is Legal in USA but can only take small bets and by the way
Intrade in 2008 was more accurate then the most accurate forecaster of them all - Nate Silver -
tl;dr?
Yes site is fucking hysterical nor is there one chance in hell that UnSkewed can be correct because this election is going to be very very very close but the Electoral college will have a wide spread that favors Obama. One of the most famous races of the past was won by +.5% on the popular vote but the E-College spread was a landslide.
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 14 years ago, 1 minute later, 54 minutes after the original post[^][v]#355,849
If there's a conspiracy, it's to make Obama voters overconfident so they'll stay home on election night. They can say whatever they want, but as the election gets closer it starts getting more expensive for them to game the numbers.
Only their predictions on game day are going to matter with respect to their professional reputations. So long as those are good, they'll be safe. Nobody will ever really question whether they were lying before, they'll just assume the numbers changed over time.
Anonymous C replied with this 14 years ago, 41 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^][v]#355,868
A VERY Long read but go to the bottom
" THE BOTTOM LINE"
Average these four scenarios together and the probabilities come out to almost exactly 50-50. It is early, and almost no matter what, the election will be a losable one for Republicans.
Back then he picked Romney out of the pack as the winner of the primary!
4 Months ago he said the bottom line would end up with "Clear Electoral Advantage for Obama"
All of the top 10 polls - including those that show Romney ahead a bit in popular vote, Not One show Romney close to winning the Electoral vote - Off by a long shot
> Only their predictions on game day are going to matter with respect to their professional reputations. So long as those are good, they'll be safe. Nobody will ever really question whether they were lying >before, they'll just assume the numbers changed over time.
Disagree with you on that - Take Fox news for instance. Rasmussen was dumped by Fox after the polls favored Obama. Fox must be pissed because wot they use now, makes Romney look even worse in E-College results. Nor do they dare go with Republican Pollster Rove because he puts Obama as winning Currently. Obama 295 votes & 270 = Win Win http://www.rove.com/election