When a stock goes public, the private investors can’t sell for a certain period of time, but now lots of new people can invest on the public market, so the stock will go up in the short term. How long is the short term? That I do not know.
Anonymous B joined in and replied with this 47 minutes ago, 2 hours later[^][v]#1,472,278
A lot of these kinds of companies are tedious across the board. I’m looking at one with $30M in revenue and a multi-billion dollar valuation. In all of their hype they’re treating loose agreements and commitments as revenue. They’re treating pilots as customer references.
🍋 (OP) replied with this 43 minutes ago, 2 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,472,281
@1,472,278 (B)
I had a realization a few minutes ago that ChatGPT was released in 2022, which means that all these massive amounts of money have been moved around in just the past 4 years. If I’m thinking out to when I’m middle aged in the 2040s and 2050s, in my mind it doesn’t make sense that we’ll see consistent sustained rapid progress for that long. It should settle down at some point, I just don’t know when or where or what it looks like. But this weird period can’t last forever. Unless I’m crazy.
> I had a realization a few minutes ago that ChatGPT was released in 2022, which means that all these massive amounts of money have been moved around in just the past 4 years. If I’m thinking out to when I’m middle aged in the 2040s and 2050s, in my mind it doesn’t make sense that we’ll see consistent sustained rapid progress for that long. It should settle down at some point, I just don’t know when or where or what it looks like. But this weird period can’t last forever. Unless I’m crazy.
What really gets me is the sheer volume of circular financing involved in this bubble. Everyone is handing everyone else money while counting it on their books. It’s a vortex of bullshit.
🍋 (OP) replied with this 36 minutes ago, 3 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,472,284
@previous (B)
I just have this gut feeling that this massive bet on one technology in one industry doesn’t seem right, but the investment keeps increasing and the models keep getting better. Then you have all this new stuff with Chinese spies and whatnot.
I guess I’m trying to think about how to plan for the future, but nobody has any sane takes about the whole AI thing. It’s really driven by the fear mongering by the CEOs as well. I saw some interview Bill Gates did with New York Times for instance where he was talking about bioweapons and how AI could kill 100 million people and all this stuff. It’s a program that generates text. Idk. It’s a cool technology, I can’t find any source on the internet that talks about it in like a sane level headed way.
Then I try and do my own research and look into the finances, but the AI companies all make up alternative accounting metrics so I’m not sure if I should even believe any of the numbers I see are real.
> I just have this gut feeling that this massive bet on one technology in one industry doesn’t seem right, but the investment keeps increasing and the models keep getting better. Then you have all this new stuff with Chinese spies and whatnot. > > I guess I’m trying to think about how to plan for the future, but nobody has any sane takes about the whole AI thing. It’s really driven by the fear mongering by the CEOs as well. I saw some interview Bill Gates did with New York Times for instance where he was talking about bioweapons and how AI could kill 100 million people and all this stuff. It’s a program that generates text. Idk. It’s a cool technology, I can’t find any source on the internet that talks about it in like a sane level headed way. > > Then I try and do my own research and look into the finances, but the AI companies all make up alternative accounting metrics so I’m not sure if I should even believe any of the numbers I see are real.
I fed a bunch of things into an LLM to get a hype vs. real perspective. It is hard to get sane information. Futurism is a fun read for failings and flailings.
It’s also so predicated on maybes, adoption, and future performance that it’s hard to tell. Nobody sane wants one model to rule them all, some default like Google for search or Microsoft for enterprise worker bee software.
🍋 (OP) replied with this 25 minutes ago, 4 minutes later, 3 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,472,289
@previous (B)
In the past, speed ups in computers were driven by moores law, you make the transistors smaller and smaller and you can fit more on a chip and the computer gets faster. But there’s a limit to how small you can make transistors, so instead of increasing clock speeds, the only way to make a computer significantly faster is to do more parallel processing. That’s what this entire AI boom is based off of. But instead of making transistors smaller they’re making bigger and bigger data centers.
I think that’s why people assume that the exponential improvement in AI will follow the exponential improvement of computers in the past, but the economics are different if you think about it.