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Topic: I don’t feel good about the state of the economy or technology
live&lemon started this discussion 1 hour ago#138,520
Billionaires are investing obscene amounts of money into automating away knowledge work. Except these billionaires are billionaires because they employ engineers. Obviously, most office type jobs involve communicating using text which is something LLMs could automate more easily than coding.
What does the future look like exactly? If there’s no reason to hire anyone because AI can do it faster, how does the economy work if you have billionaires with no employees trying to sell products nobody needs because everything has already been reproduced 1,000 times to people who don’t have jobs?
Anonymous B joined in and replied with this 1 hour ago, 6 minutes later[^][v]#1,464,716
The problem solves itself because these more advanced AIs are also deviating from instructions at an increasing rate. So there will be a limit to how smart the AI you're using for sensitive work can be. That limit is still probably better than what most white collar workers are doing but hey at least the blue collar workers will be fine for the most part.
live&lemon (OP) double-posted this 1 hour ago, 1 minute later, 10 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,464,719
Most people used to be blue collar workers early on in the Industrial Revolution. Before automation, factories used to be filled with hundreds of people, but those were the jobs that got automated first. So people pivoted to knowledge work to get away from the automation of physical labor. We still need some specialized forms of physical labor, but much less of it than we did in the past. There isn’t enough demand for the number of blue collar workers in the economy to more than double and for all of them to still have jobs or have living wages.
Anonymous C joined in and replied with this 59 minutes ago, 1 minute later, 12 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,464,721
@1,464,716 (B)
Then in that case I would prefer it to continue pushing the limit to the point that even if humans try to course correct the deviation, the AI will find around out it on its own and the billionaires and the people who worship them can do nothing but watch.
live&lemon (OP) replied with this 58 minutes ago, 59 seconds later, 13 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,464,722
Like, there are two problems here: there’s what we should do as individuals, and then there’s supply and demand. It might be that being a doctor or a plumber or an electrician is a safe bet in that AI won’t replace those people. But if 100% of people go into plumbing or become electricians or doctors, will they still be able to find jobs if the supply of doctors is greater than the demand for doctors? There’s still a problem there.
live&lemon (OP) double-posted this 57 minutes ago, 59 seconds later, 14 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,464,723
@1,464,721 (C)
If we make everything worthless, how are we supposed to survive? If you don’t have a job, and everything costs money, how will you live day to day? How are you going to get food, keep the lights on, etc.
Anonymous B replied with this 52 minutes ago, 5 minutes later, 19 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,464,726
@1,464,718 (live&lemon)
What do you want me to say? AI is happening no matter what because there's a multinational push for it. You really just have to adjust to the landscape at this point or start bombing data centers. The government won't do shit to help you because they're the ones pushing it.
live&lemon (OP) replied with this 50 minutes ago, 1 minute later, 21 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,464,728
I guess on the bright side, worse case scenario, if Anthropic and OpenAI finally work up the balls to IPO, somehow all this financial insanity works itself out because they’re billionaires and somehow we have a system where billionaire always fall up, AI really does automate away all knowledge work, and then there’s more supply for blue collar work than there is demand for it, at least then almost everybody will be in the same boat and recognize the source of the problem, which is whoever is left holding the bag when everybody else finds themselves broke.
live&lemon (OP) double-posted this 46 minutes ago, 4 minutes later, 25 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,464,730
@1,464,726 (B)
Honestly, I’m just looking for some justification for how this could all work out and be okay, except I’ve really thought about it, and if the optimists are correct, it’s bad, and if the pessimists are correct, it’s also bad. For instance, if Anthropic IPOs and the tech people are right, they become a successful company, AI keeps getting better, people will lose their jobs and it will lead to a bunch of economic problems and social unrest. If Anthropic IPOs and all the finance people are right, and Anthropic will never be profitable without some weird redefinition of what profitable means, and it tanks, and brings the stock market down with it, that will also lead to economic problems and potentially political drama. You’re just saying it’s inevitable and there’s nothing we can do about it, which is like, kinda the conclusion I’m coming to, except I don’t see how that makes this better.
live&lemon (OP) replied with this 44 minutes ago, 1 minute later, 28 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,464,732
@previous (D)
There are just under a thousand billionaires in the United States, the US has 340 million people. A million is a thousand thousand. That means that you’re talking about one in 340,000 people.
live&lemon (OP) replied with this 41 minutes ago, 1 minute later, 30 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,464,734
@previous (D)
Do you think that a world where 1 in 340,000 people live like gods and 339,999 out of 340,000 people don’t have financial stability is a world where you can exist and be safe regardless of which group you belong to?
Anonymous B replied with this 41 minutes ago, 17 seconds later, 30 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,464,736
@1,464,730 (live&lemon) @1,464,728 (live&lemon)
We'll just end up transitioning back to feudal kingdoms. The rich won't really have too much of a need for peasants with AI robots at their disposal so people will be driven to sex work, maybe agricultural work, and naturally fighting in wars. You'll see an increase in balkanization (you're already starting to see this with the UK and recently canada was set to vote on some of this stuff) and the wealthy will fight wars over petty squabbles. The rich have been talking about it for a while too these so called "freedom cities" are just going to be their little kingdoms in which they are judge, jury, and executioner. I actually read a great book that touched on this not too long ago but I forget the name.
live&lemon (OP) replied with this 39 minutes ago, 2 minutes later, 33 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,464,737
@previous (B)
If that’s the case, I’d rather be a king than a peasant. If competition is increasing rapidly, how does one go about changing their social status before it’s too late and we get locked into a system with no social mobility where nobility are simply born nobility?
live&lemon (OP) replied with this 37 minutes ago, 45 seconds later, 35 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,464,739
I don’t know a lot about medieval history, but from what I do know, it sounds like the easiest way to become the king is to kill the king, and replace the king. At least that’s how it worked in England.
Anonymous B replied with this 34 minutes ago, 31 seconds later, 37 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,464,742
@1,464,737 (live&lemon)
I mean if you're not already rich you'll have a hard time getting to be one of these future nobles. Ever play mount and blade? Lol get ready to join a raider gang or fight in a military.
live&lemon (OP) double-posted this 32 minutes ago, 50 seconds later, 39 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,464,745
@1,464,743 (D)
No I’m serious, their security is incredibly underwhelming. I saw a billionaire literally walk out in public with a t shirt and jeans on his phone with no body guards to his car.
live&lemon (OP) quadruple-posted this 30 minutes ago, 1 minute later, 41 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,464,747
I’m not saying we should kill billionaires for the record, it’s more of an analogy. Replacing somebody in a powerful position doesn’t require being smart, it just requires removing the last person.