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Live&Lemon started this discussion 2 hours ago#138,362
What will happen to the stock? I’m asking because I feel like I see the technology and what it can do, and then I listen to people talk about the economics, and I feel like they’re both equally compelling stories. It’s a transformative technology, and it’s also unprofitable and to make it better they need more compute which will only make the company even more unprofitable.
I can’t figure this one out and I’m not asking AI.
Live&Lemon (OP) double-posted this 2 hours ago, 1 minute later[^][v]#1,463,355
I guess the thing with SpaceX is that there were people hyping it and people who were pessimistic, and they were both right. Some said it would go up, some said it would go down, it did both. You could have lost a lot of money or made a lot of money.
Anonymous B joined in and replied with this 2 hours ago, 1 minute later, 2 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,463,357
Anthropic is preparing for a public market debut targeting a valuation of up to $2 trillion. of up to $2 trillion. of up to $2 trillion. of up to $2 trillion.
Live&Lemon (OP) replied with this 2 hours ago, 2 minutes later, 4 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,463,358
Overall it (SpaceX) cancels out to "meh." It started in the 130s now it’s in the 160s 4 months later which is a 20% increase. So it could have made you a millionaire… if you already had $800,000. Which is like, meh.
Live&Lemon (OP) triple-posted this 1 hour ago, 1 minute later, 7 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,463,360
My thought is this: if something is already valued very highly, the bigger something is already the harder it is for it to grow even more. Although I think the US might be lying about how well the economy is going and were probably experiencing inflation so there might be more money in the economy to pump up the value of stocks, but that money might be worth less. So overall I don’t know, I should stop talking I’m curious what you think.
Live&Lemon (OP) replied with this 1 hour ago, 32 seconds later, 11 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,463,362
It is weird though if you look up Google’s revenue, and Google’s profitability and then you compare Anthropic’s revenue and Anthropic’s profitability and then you compare their valuations. I think the thought that they’re successful and the thought that they’re unsuccessful are both uncomfortable for different reasons.
Live&Lemon (OP) triple-posted this 1 hour ago, 1 minute later, 14 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,463,364
It almost feels like we’re in an age where companies are propped up by investment and the core business is investors instead of customers. It’s the same thing as SpaceX, you can look up their revenue and profitability and compare it to Walmart and then look at their valuations. I just wonder who these investors are that have this much money? Who are these people?
Live&Lemon (OP) replied with this 1 hour ago, 2 minutes later, 27 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,463,369
@previous (B)
I guess it’s a little paradoxical because there’s the whole fear that AI will replace software developers, and that anybody can just vibe code open sourced versions of existing software. But if that’s the case that nobody will profit off of software, then why will people pay money to produce software they can’t profit off of once there are millions of open sourced copies of everything already freely available anyway?
Live&Lemon (OP) replied with this 1 hour ago, 4 minutes later, 36 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,463,382
My other thought is maybe Anthropic’s frontier models are their most economically unviable models and they’re pushing some crazy moonshot technology at an unsustainable price right before they IPO next month to build hype and once they raise money from the IPO the price of their frontier models will shoot up like crazy. Or maybe that’s just cope. Idk.
> My other thought is maybe Anthropic’s frontier models are their most economically unviable models and they’re pushing some crazy moonshot technology at an unsustainable price right before they IPO next month to build hype and once they raise money from the IPO the price of their frontier models will shoot up like crazy. Or maybe that’s just cope. Idk.
Another sign will be how quickly insiders dump shares. This has become a pretty shameless practice with workarounds to the 180 day lock up periods.
Live&Lemon joined in and replied with this 33 minutes ago, 7 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^][v]#1,463,402
@previous (C)
Honestly I’m worried either way. I don’t care if AI is successful if it’s free and open for everyone, that’s utopian actually. I don’t want AI to be controlled by one or two companies that have access to all our intellectual property. If OpenAI and/or Anthropic is successful and they replace jobs, I fear for the American economy, if OpenAI and/or Anthropic aren’t successful, and this is a massive Ponzi scheme, I still fear for the American economy in the way that 2008 or the Great Depression were bad, but not in the sense that America won’t recover from it.
Live&Lemon double-posted this 15 minutes ago, 31 seconds later, 1 hour after the original post[^][v]#1,463,407
Well right after the midterms. I’m not sure if that makes it better or worse, but America is about to go through something lol. What? Don’t ask me. I just know something’s about to go down.