Topic: Will Nigeria’s population surpass the United States in the next 25 years?
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc started this discussion 2 weeks ago #138,046
Predicting the future is a dangerous thing, but here are the statistics:
Nigeria
Population: 243 million people
Birth rate: 4.3 births per woman (net growth)
Land area: 350,000 square miles
Population density: 266 people per square mile
GDP: 377 billion USD
GDP growth: 4% / year
United States
Population: 343 million people
Birth rate: 1.6 births per woman (net decline without immigration)
Land area: 3.5 million square miles
Population density: 95 people per square mile
GDP: 32 trillion USD
GDP growth: 2% / year
Replacement birth rate: 2.1 births per woman
Nigeria
Population: 243 million people
Birth rate: 4.3 births per woman (net growth)
Land area: 350,000 square miles
Population density: 266 people per square mile
GDP: 377 billion USD
GDP growth: 4% / year
United States
Population: 343 million people
Birth rate: 1.6 births per woman (net decline without immigration)
Land area: 3.5 million square miles
Population density: 95 people per square mile
GDP: 32 trillion USD
GDP growth: 2% / year
Replacement birth rate: 2.1 births per woman
(Edited 3 minutes later.)
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) double-posted this 2 weeks ago, 5 minutes later[^] [v] #1,460,912
I edited it because I decided instead of using the most recent GDP growth, I decided to rounded them so I lowered Nigeria’s slightly and raised the American GDP growth slightly to account for the fact that GDP growth can fluctuate. Out of all the statistics that’s probably the least reliable one because there are so many shenanigans that can happen in any particular year from presidents doing things like wars and tariffs or whatever. That’s probably the statistic you should pay the least attention to imo.
Anonymous B joined in and replied with this 2 weeks ago, 1 minute later, 6 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,914
Which mode of production will dominate in the near future?
a) meatbags that take 2 decades to reach adulthood, need health insurance, payroll taxes, breaks every two hours, and can only work 10 hours a day normally
b) mass produced machines with hands that can work nonstop with minimal charging time. no unions or OSHA or using the bathroom.
Nigeria is 100 years behind the leading nations in economic strategy.
a) meatbags that take 2 decades to reach adulthood, need health insurance, payroll taxes, breaks every two hours, and can only work 10 hours a day normally
b) mass produced machines with hands that can work nonstop with minimal charging time. no unions or OSHA or using the bathroom.
Nigeria is 100 years behind the leading nations in economic strategy.
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) replied with this 2 weeks ago, 3 minutes later, 10 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,918
This is probably the dumbest possible way to project so take this with a massive truckload of salt, but
377 * (1.04)^25 = 1,005
32 * 1.02^25 = 52.5
So in 25 years, I’d imagine Nigeria might have a 1 trillion USD GDP and the US might have a 50 trillion USD GDP. Although I have a hard time imagining Americans are actually going to be almost twice as rich as they are now, so probably that might mostly be inflation related, so idk. But basically, Nigeria might get to a trillion USD GDP by 2050, but just barely. More likely by 2060 maybe. (Very likely to be wrong).
377 * (1.04)^25 = 1,005
32 * 1.02^25 = 52.5
So in 25 years, I’d imagine Nigeria might have a 1 trillion USD GDP and the US might have a 50 trillion USD GDP. Although I have a hard time imagining Americans are actually going to be almost twice as rich as they are now, so probably that might mostly be inflation related, so idk. But basically, Nigeria might get to a trillion USD GDP by 2050, but just barely. More likely by 2060 maybe. (Very likely to be wrong).
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) double-posted this 2 weeks ago, 2 minutes later, 12 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,919
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) triple-posted this 2 weeks ago, 7 minutes later, 19 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,925
We can all make guesses, but I’m just saying, Nigeria’s economy is growing at 4.4% and the US is growing at 1.5%. You can say you think the US should grow faster because of AI, but it’s not. So that has to be factored in.
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) quadruple-posted this 2 weeks ago, 1 minute later, 21 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,928
There’s also an inherent assumption that Nigeria won’t utilize AI. Which I find hard to believe due to the existence of open source models. Even if most Nigerians can’t afford it, Nigeria has a very unequal wealth distribution, so there are a select few Nigerians who are tremendously wealthy and could utilize AI without having to spend money on research and development.
Anonymous B replied with this 2 weeks ago, 4 minutes later, 26 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,930
@1,460,919 (Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc)
Why do teens see income growth rates that exceed a tenured doctor's?
Why do teens see income growth rates that exceed a tenured doctor's?
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) replied with this 2 weeks ago, 2 minutes later, 28 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,931
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) double-posted this 2 weeks ago, 1 minute later, 30 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,934
You can look up what China’s GDP was in 1975, what their birth rate per woman was in 1975, and then you can compare that to Nigeria.
Anonymous B replied with this 2 weeks ago, 51 seconds later, 31 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,935
@1,460,931 (Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc)
China is leading in some industries, that's more impressive than the passive GDP bump Nigeria gets from riding the world's coattails.
China is leading in some industries, that's more impressive than the passive GDP bump Nigeria gets from riding the world's coattails.
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) replied with this 2 weeks ago, 2 minutes later, 33 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,938
Of course, the rate of economic growth is determined by the rate of industrialization, and the rate of industrialization in China in 1975 was faster. But still, a poor country with a high birth rate can develop into a wealthy country with a low birth rate, and that can happen relatively quickly. The fact that Nigeria has less advanced technology isn’t inherently a setback, it means they can make massive gains incredibly quickly if they can just copy solutions that have already worked in other countries. Now whether that happens or not I can’t predict, but I’m just saying, it’s not outside the realm of possibility. However, I think it’s more likely that Nigeria would look like a developed country in the early 22nd century, not the mid 21st century, which is what this poll is about.
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) double-posted this 2 weeks ago, 20 seconds later, 33 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,939
@1,460,935 (B)
> China is leading in some industries, that's more impressive than the passive GDP bump Nigeria gets from riding the world's coattails.
It wasn’t in 1975 lol
> China is leading in some industries, that's more impressive than the passive GDP bump Nigeria gets from riding the world's coattails.
It wasn’t in 1975 lol
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) triple-posted this 2 weeks ago, 35 seconds later, 34 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,940
You should look up the information I told you to look up, google what China’s GDP was in 1975.
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) quadruple-posted this 2 weeks ago, 1 minute later, 36 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,941
And anyway this whole debate is moving the goal post, the original topic is asking if Nigeria will surpass the US in terms of population in the next 25 years, not if they’ll surpass the US in GDP. If Nigeria ever surpasses the US in GDP it won’t be in the 21st century, it would have to be at least in the 22nd century.
Anonymous B replied with this 2 weeks ago, 1 minute later, 37 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,942
@1,460,939 (Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc)
@1,460,940 (Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc)
You are missing the point.
You should talk about how impressive it is when they actually do it.
China wasn't great, and then they were. Nigeria isn't great. There is no guarantee they will be, China's story is not the rule for everyone, it wouldn't be possible for all countries to become the leader.
@1,460,940 (Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc)
You are missing the point.
You should talk about how impressive it is when they actually do it.
China wasn't great, and then they were. Nigeria isn't great. There is no guarantee they will be, China's story is not the rule for everyone, it wouldn't be possible for all countries to become the leader.
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) replied with this 2 weeks ago, 3 minutes later, 41 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,943
@previous (B)
Well the original question is about the population of Nigeria in 25 years. We’ll see who’s right.
Well the original question is about the population of Nigeria in 25 years. We’ll see who’s right.
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) double-posted this 2 weeks ago, 1 minute later, 42 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,944
The faster Nigeria’s birth rate falls, the faster Nigeria will develop. The slower Nigeria’s birth rate falls, the higher its GDP will be once Nigeria’s birth rate does eventually fall.
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) triple-posted this 2 weeks ago, 13 minutes later, 56 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,949
Also idk, to me I want Nigeria to become wealthy for the sake of Nigerians, but I don’t judge people because they’re poor, that’s one of the most shallow things you can do. Just the fact that Nigeria has a lot of people makes it interesting. I know the word "great" has more than one meaning, for example, being a "great" conqueror doesn’t make you a great person. The same way "terrible" can mean great. You’re basically saying Nigeria isn’t great in terms of it’s not a terrible country, as in it’s not tremendously powerful. But there’s more to life than that. There’s also culture, food, art, community, etc. I’m sure there’s a lot of beauty in Nigerian culture and they have a lot to be proud of, just because they’re poor, that’s doesn’t mean I just write them off, that would be stupid.
(Edited 27 seconds later.)
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) quadruple-posted this 2 weeks ago, 1 minute later, 58 minutes after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,950
Like dinosaur means terrible lizard. It’s the same meaning as saying Ivan the Terrible or Alexander the Great. Nigeria isn’t great, but that doesn’t mean its culture isn’t great. You get what I’m saying? They’re two different things but it’s the same word.
(Edited 40 seconds later.)
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) quintuple-posted this 2 weeks ago, 2 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^] [v] #1,460,952
Although maybe Ivan the terrible was also terrible but that’s another thing.
Anonymous C joined in and replied with this 2 weeks ago, 6 hours later, 7 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,461,018
I think it will probably happen, but to play the devil’s advocate there are two things that could stop Nigeria from suppressing the US in terms of population:
1. America has a change of heart and goes hippie hippie liberal "love everybody peace and love" and we get lots of immigrants and our population grows to 400 million in spite of our low birth rate probably becoming minority white in the process
2. Something insane happens with the Nigerian economy, they become a middle income country sooner than expected and their birth rate plummets like South Korea
I’m going to say #2 has like a 0.1% chance of happening and option #1 has a 25% chance of happening.
1. America has a change of heart and goes hippie hippie liberal "love everybody peace and love" and we get lots of immigrants and our population grows to 400 million in spite of our low birth rate probably becoming minority white in the process
2. Something insane happens with the Nigerian economy, they become a middle income country sooner than expected and their birth rate plummets like South Korea
I’m going to say #2 has like a 0.1% chance of happening and option #1 has a 25% chance of happening.
Anonymous C double-posted this 2 weeks ago, 10 minutes later, 7 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,461,019
Also I guess a one child policy, but it’s Nigeria, they’re half Christian half Muslim and they’re all religious, if the government ever mandated abortions they’d probably all lose their shit.
Anonymous C triple-posted this 2 weeks ago, 2 minutes later, 7 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,461,020
Or I guess also a war, but if it’s a war with another African country I have a hard time imagining them losing if you compare their population to their neighbors. And their neighbors with governments that don’t like them aren’t exactly countries the US is likely to support either.
(Edited 3 minutes later.)
Anonymous D joined in and replied with this 2 weeks ago, 3 hours later, 10 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,461,033
@1,460,943 (Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc)
> Well the original question is about the population of Nigeria in 25 years. We’ll see who’s right.
!Remindme 25 years
> Well the original question is about the population of Nigeria in 25 years. We’ll see who’s right.
!Remindme 25 years
Anonymous D double-posted this 2 weeks ago, 6 minutes later, 11 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,461,036
There are population pyramids which have one year increments. You could use one to model the population and also the changing birth rate which is bound to drop as women get more educated.Anonymous D triple-posted this 2 weeks ago, 2 minutes later, 11 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,461,037
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !AH1y9olf4E joined in and replied with this 2 weeks ago, 8 minutes later, 11 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,461,040
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc double-posted this 2 weeks ago, 20 seconds later, 11 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,461,041
Wrong tripcode.
Anonymous D replied with this 2 weeks ago, 2 minutes later, 11 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,461,042
@1,461,040 (Mr. Bloody Lemonade !AH1y9olf4E)
No idea. But many poor countries are now below replacement.
No idea. But many poor countries are now below replacement.
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc replied with this 2 weeks ago, 1 minute later, 11 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,461,043
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc double-posted this 2 weeks ago, 2 minutes later, 11 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,461,044
I think Africa’s population growth will stop eventually, but Africa is a bit unique because Africa was underpopulated for most of history due to tropical diseases. Africa is bigger than Europe but they had half the population or lest for most of history. Even during World War Two, they had half the population of Europe. They’re just now able to expand into what the continent can support, which I think will be slightly less than 4 billion people total.
Anonymous D replied with this 2 weeks ago, 52 seconds later, 11 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,461,045
@1,461,043 (Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc)
Yes. It's surprising that Africa is the place where most countries are above replacement. Who knows the cause.
Yes. It's surprising that Africa is the place where most countries are above replacement. Who knows the cause.
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc replied with this 2 weeks ago, 3 minutes later, 11 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,461,048
@previous (D)
If I had to guess it’s probably mosquitoes and the Industrial Revolution. Africa had fewer people because of malaria prior to the Industrial Revolution, Europe was able to colonize Africa because of the Industrial Revolution which kept Africa poor, and now they’re poor, and their continent is underpopulated, but they have lower infant and childhood mortality than they did in past centuries so their population is growing. I could be wrong, but I think that’s why Africa is lagging behind in terms of development, Asia already had a lot of people to begin with so their birth rates fell first.
If I had to guess it’s probably mosquitoes and the Industrial Revolution. Africa had fewer people because of malaria prior to the Industrial Revolution, Europe was able to colonize Africa because of the Industrial Revolution which kept Africa poor, and now they’re poor, and their continent is underpopulated, but they have lower infant and childhood mortality than they did in past centuries so their population is growing. I could be wrong, but I think that’s why Africa is lagging behind in terms of development, Asia already had a lot of people to begin with so their birth rates fell first.
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc double-posted this 2 weeks ago, 12 minutes later, 11 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,461,052
Even though it’s really popular for people to make a reductive cultural (or if they’re racist enough sometimes a genetic) argument. Like, "oh they’re all just corrupt" or "oh they’re all just tribal" or "oh they’re all just stupid." But given the genetic and cultural diversity of Africa, I think all those attempts to explain it are bullshit. If you just look at how many ethnic groups and languages are in a country like Nigeria for example, it doesn’t make sense that with that much diversity everybody has exactly the same flaw in Africa. It’s probably something that affects all Africans, like climate, geography, disease, colonization, etc. Of course culture and genetics are two separate things, and it’s not straight forward how to quantify cultural diversity, but you can quantify genetic diversity. Africans have a million more genetic variants than all groups outside of Africa. A Japanese person, a British person, and a Native American are more genetically similar than two Africans. I don’t think any cultural or political or genetic explanation is valid, so I think I’m leaning more towards climate, disease, geography, and population demographics as being the reasons.
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc triple-posted this 2 weeks ago, 6 minutes later, 11 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,461,055
I mean when white supremacists talk about biological determinism for example and will say things like Africans have lower IQs, IQ is just one number, but if Africans have a million more genetic variants than non-Africans, the number of possible ways, because you have to keep in mind there are 4 nucleotides of DNA, not 2 like binary, so that’s 4^(10^6) possible combinations… I’m just saying it’s very extremely unbelievable that even if intelligence is biologically determined that all Africans are stupid. That’s just not within the realm of believability mathematically. You really would expect the smartest people and the dumbest people to be African.
(Edited 1 minute later.)