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Topic: Will Nigeria’s population surpass the United States in the next 25 years?
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc started this discussion 35 minutes ago#138,046
Predicting the future is a dangerous thing, but here are the statistics:
Nigeria
Population: 243 million people
Birth rate: 4.3 births per woman (net growth)
Land area: 350,000 square miles
Population density: 266 people per square mile
GDP: 377 billion USD
GDP growth: 4% / year
United States
Population: 343 million people
Birth rate: 1.6 births per woman (net decline without immigration)
Land area: 3.5 million square miles
Population density: 95 people per square mile
GDP: 32 trillion USD
GDP growth: 2% / year
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) double-posted this 29 minutes ago, 5 minutes later[^][v]#1,460,912
I edited it because I decided instead of using the most recent GDP growth, I decided to rounded them so I lowered Nigeria’s slightly and raised the American GDP growth slightly to account for the fact that GDP growth can fluctuate. Out of all the statistics that’s probably the least reliable one because there are so many shenanigans that can happen in any particular year from presidents doing things like wars and tariffs or whatever. That’s probably the statistic you should pay the least attention to imo.
Anonymous B joined in and replied with this 28 minutes ago, 1 minute later, 6 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,460,914
Which mode of production will dominate in the near future?
a) meatbags that take 2 decades to reach adulthood, need health insurance, payroll taxes, breaks every two hours, and can only work 10 hours a day normally
b) mass produced machines with hands that can work nonstop with minimal charging time. no unions or OSHA or using the bathroom.
Nigeria is 100 years behind the leading nations in economic strategy.
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) replied with this 24 minutes ago, 3 minutes later, 10 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,460,918
This is probably the dumbest possible way to project so take this with a massive truckload of salt, but
377 * (1.04)^25 = 1,005
32 * 1.02^25 = 52.5
So in 25 years, I’d imagine Nigeria might have a 1 trillion USD GDP and the US might have a 50 trillion USD GDP. Although I have a hard time imagining Americans are actually going to be almost twice as rich as they are now, so probably that might mostly be inflation related, so idk. But basically, Nigeria might get to a trillion USD GDP by 2050, but just barely. More likely by 2060 maybe. (Very likely to be wrong).
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) triple-posted this 15 minutes ago, 7 minutes later, 19 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,460,925
We can all make guesses, but I’m just saying, Nigeria’s economy is growing at 4.4% and the US is growing at 1.5%. You can say you think the US should grow faster because of AI, but it’s not. So that has to be factored in.
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) quadruple-posted this 13 minutes ago, 1 minute later, 21 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,460,928
There’s also an inherent assumption that Nigeria won’t utilize AI. Which I find hard to believe due to the existence of open source models. Even if most Nigerians can’t afford it, Nigeria has a very unequal wealth distribution, so there are a select few Nigerians who are tremendously wealthy and could utilize AI without having to spend money on research and development.
Anonymous B replied with this 4 minutes ago, 51 seconds later, 31 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,460,935
@1,460,931 (Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc)
China is leading in some industries, that's more impressive than the passive GDP bump Nigeria gets from riding the world's coattails.
Mr. Bloody Lemonade !0JqexkOGBc (OP) replied with this 1 minute ago, 2 minutes later, 33 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,460,938
Of course, the rate of economic growth is determined by the rate of industrialization, and the rate of industrialization in China in 1975 was faster. But still, a poor country with a high birth rate can develop into a wealthy country with a low birth rate, and that can happen relatively quickly. The fact that Nigeria has less advanced technology isn’t inherently a setback, it means they can make massive gains incredibly quickly if they can just copy solutions that have already worked in other countries. Now whether that happens or not I can’t predict, but I’m just saying, it’s not outside the realm of possibility. However, I think it’s more likely that Nigeria would look like a developed country in the early 22nd century, not the mid 21st century, which is what this poll is about.