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The United States currently faces a structural milk surplus driven by record-high production volumes that outpace domestic consumption growth. As of 2026, the U.S. milk cow herd has reached its largest size since 1993, with production hitting record levels of approximately 876 million metric tons in the first ten months of 2025. This oversupply is exacerbated by a 37% decline in per capita milk consumption since 1970 and limited domestic processing capacity, forcing farmers to dump excess milk or rely heavily on exports to absorb the glut.
The surplus is primarily a result of intense herd management strategies rather than sustainable expansion. While the number of licensed dairy herds has declined by roughly 65% since 2003, remaining operations have shifted to larger scales and higher-yielding cows, leading to a shrinking pipeline of replacement heifers at their lowest levels since 1978. Consequently, the industry is maintaining high output by keeping older cows in production longer, a practice that distorts market signals and creates volatile price pressures as global supply from the EU and New Zealand also expands.
To manage this chronic oversupply, the U.S. has increasingly relied on massive dairy export promotion rather than domestic supply management programs like quotas. Processors are shifting milk into higher-value ingredients like cheese and butter to mitigate low farmgate prices, but global competition has intensified this pressure. Recent data indicates that while exports of cheese and butter have reached record highs, they do not fully offset the downward pressure on milk prices caused by the imbalance between domestic production and demand.
boof (OP) replied with this 51 minutes ago, 8 minutes later, 11 minutes after the original post[^][v]#1,453,741
now it seems to me that they could dehydrate the milk. powdered milk was pretty common in the more difficult-to-travel-to areas where people who wanted milk got to. keep a strategic protein supply.