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Anonymous B replied with this 1 month ago, 6 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^][v]#1,427,011
@previous (C)
The US has the material resources it needs to keep the machine running.
China does not.
That's all I've said, and I already know you have some strawman ready, so go ahead and I'll point out that I didn't say whatever made up shit you will pretend I said.
Price is dependent on the size of the surplus, we produce about 22 million barrels of oil per day, and we consume about 20 million barrels of oil per day. About 30% of our consumption comes from imports. If the global price of oil rises, and we start buying less oil, that reduces our surplus and prices will rise inside the United States.
Anonymous B replied with this 1 month ago, 2 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^][v]#1,427,015
@1,427,013 (C)
As you just said we produce 2 million barrels more than we use.
Are you trying to only count one side of the equation here? Acting like it's better to import that 30% and then sell the equivalent because then exports are higher?
If I grow 10 tomatoes and then sell 8 tomatoes because I ate 2, would I make more money by buying 2 tomatoes from the store because then I could sell 10 tomatoes? No, and it should just be obvious why.
> Are you trying to only count one side of the equation here? Acting like it's better to import that 30% and then sell the equivalent because then exports are higher?
The reason why you would import oil despite having a surplus of oil is because there are other countries that sell oil that’s less expensive than American oil. If the global price is lower than the domestic price, people will buy oil from outsiders.
Anonymous C replied with this 1 month ago, 56 seconds later, 1 hour after the original post[^][v]#1,427,020
This is from 2015, but it’s difficult to find information on this, but the US is more on the expensive side in terms of cost to produce oil. The countries that have the cheapest oil (unsurprisingly) are the countries with the largest oil reserves in the Middle East.
Anonymous C triple-posted this 1 month ago, 2 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^][v]#1,427,022
Most countries also don’t get 100% of their oil from one source. It might be less expensive to import oil from say Saudi Arabia, but Saudi Arabia by itself 1.) couldn’t support the entire world on its own, and 2.) countries try to diversify their oil imports if possible. So for example, even if American oil is more expensive it might make sense for a country like say (hypothetically) Japan to import a small amount of American oil in addition to Saudi oil so if the Saudi oil stops coming, they’re not completely without oil.
Anonymous C quadruple-posted this 1 month ago, 4 minutes later, 1 hour after the original post[^][v]#1,427,024
Although, going with the example of Japan. Say Japan doesn’t have large oil reserves and Saudi Arabia sells cheaper oil than the United States. That means that the Japanese would want to buy their oil as cheap as possible so they’d get more of it from Saudi Arabia than the United States. But the Japanese might worry that there could be a future disruption to the Saudi oil supply, so they might also buy a small amount of more expensive oil from the United States just in case.
(Japan gets about 40% of their oil from Saudi Arabia and about 4% from the United States).
Anonymous C quintuple-posted this 1 month ago, 1 minute later, 1 hour after the original post[^][v]#1,427,025
But I’m just a low IQ black guy on the internet, but you’re a high IQ white guy, so obviously you know more about economics than I do, and you’ll be proven correct when gas prices don’t rise inside the United States due to the war on Iran… except they already have risen but just ignore that and keep arguing even though you’re wrong.
Anonymous C septuple-posted this 1 month ago, 3 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,427,028
Now Nigeria on the other hand has half the proven oil reserves of the United States but they produce 1/20th as much oil as we do due to lack of infrastructure, so if the global price of oil rises and they can profit off of that to expand their oil infrastructure, that’s a country that might stand to benefit from this.
Anonymous C replied with this 1 month ago, 1 minute later, 2 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,427,030
@previous (B)
Because everyone on the planet can’t get all of their oil from the same country. Only one country at any given time will have the least expensive oil, but if everyone buys from that one country, the oil from that country will become expensive.
Anonymous C double-posted this 1 month ago, 4 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,427,031
The other thing is, no matter what the price of oil is, most countries won’t want to get all of their oil from one country, that would be a mistake. Say Japan got 100% of their oil from the United States. That would make Japanese society completely dependent on the United States and nobody else, so what if Trump decided to raise the price of oil or stop selling oil to Japan because he didn’t like something the Japanese prime minister said? They’re not stupid so they don’t get all their oil from one source, they get some from Saudi Arabia, some from America, etc. But most of their oil will come from the least expensive sources, but they can’t and shouldn’t get all their oil from one source so they will get a little bit from more expensive sources.
Anonymous C triple-posted this 1 month ago, 28 seconds later, 2 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,427,032
The thing about this is there are a couple hundred countries in the world, so if you want a simple answer, simple answers will be wrong because the global economy isn’t simple.
Anonymous C quadruple-posted this 1 month ago, 1 minute later, 2 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,427,033
Now this doesn’t mean that if they can’t get oil from one source (say the Middle East), that they can’t buy from alternative sources, they absolutely can, but it will be more expensive and that will hurt their economy.
Anonymous C quintuple-posted this 1 month ago, 16 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,427,034
Everyone is always trying to sell their oil for the highest price they can to increase profits and everyone is trying to buy oil for the lowest price they can. Now the issue is, you can’t sell too high or nobody will buy it. What happens is you naturally reach an equilibrium between willingness to pay and the supply of oil. But there are some interesting scenarios that can happen.
For example, the reason why OPEC exists is because there’s this paradox where since every oil producing nation wants to outcompete the other oil producing nations, they all have an incentive to produce as much oil as possible so that they can lower their price and other countries will buy oil from them instead of the competition. But if everyone does that, the price will get so low that they’ll lose out on the profits they could make if they all produced less oil. When you have a small number of "firms" (in this case countries) you have a situation called oligopoly, which is different from a competitive market in that there aren’t a large number of firms and there isn’t free entry into the market. You can’t just invent a new country (easily at least). So oil producing countries have an incentive to work together to form a cartel (OPEC is a cartel) to all agree to produce less oil to raise the price of oil and increase profits for all members of the cartel.
Anonymous C sextuple-posted this 1 month ago, 1 minute later, 2 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,427,035
Which all of that complicated stuff is to say, the economy isn’t a zero sum game, and sometimes you can make more money by producing less and less money by producing more. So if you think about the world in a zero sum way, you’re going to lose.
> Everyone is always trying to sell their oil for the highest price they can to increase profits and everyone is trying to buy oil for the lowest price they can. Now the issue is, you can’t sell too high or nobody will buy it. What happens is you naturally reach an equilibrium between willingness to pay and the supply of oil. But there are some interesting scenarios that can happen. > > For example, the reason why OPEC exists is because there’s this paradox where since every oil producing nation wants to outcompete the other oil producing nations, they all have an incentive to produce as much oil as possible so that they can lower their price and other countries will buy oil from them instead of the competition. But if everyone does that, the price will get so low that they’ll lose out on the profits they could make if they all produced less oil. When you have a small number of "firms" (in this case countries) you have a situation called oligopoly, which is different from a competitive market in that there aren’t a large number of firms and there isn’t free entry into the market. You can’t just invent a new country (easily at least). So oil producing countries have an incentive to work together to form a cartel (OPEC is a cartel) to all agree to produce less oil to raise the price of oil and increase profits for all members of the cartel.
BTW this related to the prisoners dilemma through the concept of the Nash equilibrium which you can use to explain why on average over several rounds, a tit-for-tat strategy is the best strategy in certain situations (what China did in response to Trump’s tariffs). It’s a very interesting subject!
Note that I never said everyone could get their oil from the same country.
People buy from the cheapest source on the market (all else being equal), and that bids up the price of the most affordable seller.
If there were cheaper oil, they'd buy it. As it gets bid up, that prices rises toward the price of the more expensive. If it goes above the more expensive, then the other oil is cheaper and people buy that.
> Most countries also don’t get 100% of their oil from one source. It might be less expensive to import oil from say Saudi Arabia, but Saudi Arabia by itself 1.) couldn’t support the entire world on its own, and 2.) countries try to diversify their oil imports if possible. So for example, even if American oil is more expensive it might make sense for a country like say (hypothetically) Japan to import a small amount of American oil in addition to Saudi oil so if the Saudi oil stops coming, they’re not completely without oil.
> Although, going with the example of Japan. Say Japan doesn’t have large oil reserves and Saudi Arabia sells cheaper oil than the United States. That means that the Japanese would want to buy their oil as cheap as possible so they’d get more of it from Saudi Arabia than the United States. But the Japanese might worry that there could be a future disruption to the Saudi oil supply, so they might also buy a small amount of more expensive oil from the United States just in case. > > (Japan gets about 40% of their oil from Saudi Arabia and about 4% from the United States).
Anonymous C replied with this 1 month ago, 29 seconds later, 2 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,427,054
Now if Japan had their own oil reserves they wouldn’t have a reason to buy American oil, they oil buy it to diversify their oil imports in case of an emergency, not because it’s cheaper than anybody else’s oil. But you said that’s a non sequitur.
> You're talking about a nominal amount to keep trade open. > > A negligible amount that won't be moving market prices.
Dude, you said we produce a surplus of oil. The only reason anyone buys our oil is to diversify their energy imports. Yeah, Japan only imports a negligible amount of their oil from us… everyone who imports oil from us does it that way.
The top five destination countries of U.S. total petroleum exports by export volume and percentage share of U.S. total petroleum exports in 2023 were:
Mexico—1.17 million b/d—11%
China—0.98 million b/d—10%
The Netherlands—0.86 million b/d—9%
Canada—0.80 million b/d—8%
Japan—0.62 million b/d—6%
Anonymous C triple-posted this 1 month ago, 2 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,427,056
Which is why only using our own oil will drive up the price of gas in the United States because American oil is expensive which is why the price of gas is rising in the United States so why are you even arguing about this?
> Dude, you said we produce a surplus of oil. The only reason anyone buys our oil is to diversify their energy imports. Yeah, Japan only imports a negligible amount of their oil from us… everyone who imports oil from us does it that way.
Yes, so what? I said that to highlight the point that the US can meet it's own demand.
Explaining why people buy the surplus isn't relevant to what I said, because I never touched on who bought the surplus or why.
> The US has the material resources it needs to keep the machine running. > > China does not. > > That's all I've said, and I already know you have some strawman ready, so go ahead and I'll point out that I didn't say whatever made up shit you will pretend I said.
> As you just said we produce 2 million barrels more than we use. > > Are you trying to only count one side of the equation here? Acting like it's better to import that 30% and then sell the equivalent because then exports are higher? > > If I grow 10 tomatoes and then sell 8 tomatoes because I ate 2, would I make more money by buying 2 tomatoes from the store because then I could sell 10 tomatoes? No, and it should just be obvious why.
You clearly showed that you didn’t understand why it’s better to import 30% of oil when we produce a surplus of oil because you clearly don’t understand economics.
Anonymous C replied with this 1 month ago, 31 seconds later, 3 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,427,069
@1,427,067 (B)
Yes you did say it isn’t better. You accused me of acting like it’s better, made an analogy, then said "no, and it should be obvious why."
> I never said otherwise, you're arguing against a strawman. again.
I’ve never accused you of saying something you didn’t say, you just accuse me of a strawman argument whenever you realized you can’t defend the argument you were making which happens to be every single time you argue with me, because you’re a fucking idiot!
Anonymous B triple-posted this 1 month ago, 2 minutes later, 3 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,427,075
@1,427,071 (C)
I spelled out my argument, and I just quoted it so you could see it again.
If you want to accuse me of not defending the strawman you're making, quote the exact line where I said it was better to meet our own demand. Not where I said it was possible to do, but where I said it was better.
You can't because I never said that. Once again you are too idiotic to follow the conversation.
> The US has the material resources it needs to keep the machine running. > > China does not. > > That's all I've said, and I already know you have some strawman ready, so go ahead and I'll point out that I didn't say whatever made up shit you will pretend I said.
Anonymous B replied with this 1 month ago, 1 minute later, 3 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,427,080
@1,427,076 (C)
I said the US will be fine. I also said it will survive.
I never said consuming entirely domestic production was the best way to do it, or the most profitable.
You have zero comprehension skills, and then act like its my job to defend arguments you made up for me.
You are actually the stupidest person on the site.
I've said it in other threads too, all you have to do to avoid the strawman accusation forever is to just verify what you think I'm implying or give a direct quote. VERY SIMPLE STUFF.
But you never do that, because you can't win a straightforward conversation and resort to strawmanning and walls of irrelevant text to make yourself feel smart.
> As you just said we produce 2 million barrels more than we use. > > Are you trying to only count one side of the equation here? Acting like it's better to import that 30% and then sell the equivalent because then exports are higher? > > If I grow 10 tomatoes and then sell 8 tomatoes because I ate 2, would I make more money by buying 2 tomatoes from the store because then I could sell 10 tomatoes? No, and it should just be obvious why.
> Why do you think people buy more expensive American oil if there is cheaper oil on the market?
THERE IS ONLY ONE Price on oil WORLD WIDE. Price set by the Saudis and their Cartel. YES Prices vary depending on location re difficulty of production and quality of oil.
HOWEVER the price we pay ends up on the Cartel setting the daily price.