If anybody wants my opinion it’s 50:50.
Every empire falls. Just ask Killer Lettuce.

The world is, in President Xi Jinping’s own words, “undergoing great changes unseen in a century”.[1]Link to footnote
The challenge for China’s 15th Five-Year Plan will be ensuring that China places itself firmly on the right side of those “great changes”.
In the eyes of China’s decision-makers, the country is entering a decisive period: the pace of technological and geopolitical disruption requires every lever of state policy be aligned to secure China’s position.
The new Plan, due to be adopted in early March, will double down on the direction of travel of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which put resilience and indigenous innovation at the centre of China’s national strategy. Both the successes and the strains of the past five years have cemented that viewpoint: China’s dominance over upstream rare-earth supply chains has allowed it to successfully push back against US trade and tech pressures, but continued reliance on foreign chipmaking inputs is complicating progress at the highest-value end of the technology stack.
The new Five-Year Plan will be first and foremost a domestic-policy blueprint. But its implications are far-reaching: ambitions for world-leading manufacturing and supply-chain capabilities will reshape competitive dynamics for advanced and emerging economies alike, while an all-out focus on AI deployment could redefine the terms of technological competition.
And the Plan’s level of success in addressing domestic challenges, in particular delivering an ambitious transition to innovation-driven growth, will determine Beijing’s appetite for risk in asserting its interests beyond China’s borders.
Ahead of the Plan’s formal adoption in early March, this paper draws on the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee’s “Recommendations” for the 15th Five-Year Plan, authoritative Party guidance on political framing and policy priorities released late last year. Through comparative analysis of the 2020[2]Link to footnote and 2025[3]Link to footnote “Recommendations”, as well as broader insight from one of the liveliest policy-making processes in the Chinese political cycle, this paper previews what will – and won’t – change in China’s strategy over the next five years.
1. Sci-tech: Diffusion, not development, will take the top-priority spot in the 15th Five-Year Plan.
https://institute.global/insights/geopolitics-and-security/what-to-expect-from-chinas-new-five-year-plan
Read how China will end up on your dinner plate as more than just food.
@previous (C)
Private capital can see economic trends decades into the future.
Commies can't make a plan 6 years in advance.