Topic: Someone help: If Iran has no navy or Air Force, how is it shutting down Hormuz straits?
Anonymous A started this discussion 4 weeks ago #133,443
With spit balls and evil glares? Missiles?
Anonymous B joined in and replied with this 4 weeks ago, 3 hours later[^] [v] #1,421,656
Well… whether Iran has an Air Force or not depends on your definition of an Air Force. They don’t have any manned airplanes, except they have a huge drone force. They don’t have an air force if you don’t count kamiakze drones. So you can say they have a big Air Force or they have no Air Force, it really depends on what kinda vibe you’re going for. The fact is, in the entire history of the world, bombing a country to force civilians to rise up against their government has never ever worked. The closest was when we nuked Japan, but even then the people never rose up, the government just surrendered.
Anonymous B double-posted this 4 weeks ago, 1 minute later, 3 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,421,657
Now one of two things is going to happen: either the US will withdraw and leave the Iranian state fully intact (the government is not the state), or they will have to put boots on the ground in a mountainous country of 90 million people leading to a high causality clusterfuck.
Anonymous B triple-posted this 4 weeks ago, 1 minute later, 3 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,421,658
The problem with Iran is they’re a decentralized authoritarian regime, individual military commanders can make decisions without the authority of the central government, so if you knock out the central government, nobody can tell them to stop fighting.
Anonymous B quadruple-posted this 4 weeks ago, 2 minutes later, 3 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,421,659
If you think about this: the military commanders can make decisions without the central government, if you take out the central government, the people almost certainly will not overthrow their government because that’s never happened even once in the history of the world, so how will all the military commanders surrender if they don’t have a supreme leader that can tell them, "Hey we surrendered quit fighting."
It’s a question!
It’s a question!
Anonymous C joined in and replied with this 3 weeks ago, 15 hours later, 19 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,421,700
"We're now facing what looks like the biggest energy crisis since the oil embargo in the 1970s," says Helima Croft, the global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.An 'insurance-driven shutdown'
Iran has often threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, but never actually attempted it before.
And notably, Iran didn't need a naval blockade to bring traffic to a halt. It didn't use underwater mines or have to rely on anti-ship missiles, but focused on selectively deploying a much cheaper technology.
"All [Iran] had to do was several drone strikes in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz," Croft says. "And all of a sudden, insurers and shipping companies decided that it was unsafe to traverse that very narrow S-curve of that waterway."
"It's really an insurance-driven shutdown,"
Anonymous D joined in and replied with this 3 weeks ago, 46 minutes later, 20 hours after the original post[^] [v] #1,421,704
@previous (C)
> "We're now facing what looks like the biggest energy crisis since the oil embargo in the 1970s," says Helima Croft, the global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
> An 'insurance-driven shutdown'
>
> Iran has often threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, but never actually attempted it before.
>
> And notably, Iran didn't need a naval blockade to bring traffic to a halt. It didn't use underwater mines or have to rely on anti-ship missiles, but focused on selectively deploying a much cheaper technology.
>
> "All [Iran] had to do was several drone strikes in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz," Croft says. "And all of a sudden, insurers and shipping companies decided that it was unsafe to traverse that very narrow S-curve of that waterway."
>
> "It's really an insurance-driven shutdown,"
Holy shit. Thank you. I was just looking at a maritime publication for something like this.
> "We're now facing what looks like the biggest energy crisis since the oil embargo in the 1970s," says Helima Croft, the global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
> An 'insurance-driven shutdown'
>
> Iran has often threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, but never actually attempted it before.
>
> And notably, Iran didn't need a naval blockade to bring traffic to a halt. It didn't use underwater mines or have to rely on anti-ship missiles, but focused on selectively deploying a much cheaper technology.
>
> "All [Iran] had to do was several drone strikes in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz," Croft says. "And all of a sudden, insurers and shipping companies decided that it was unsafe to traverse that very narrow S-curve of that waterway."
>
> "It's really an insurance-driven shutdown,"
Holy shit. Thank you. I was just looking at a maritime publication for something like this.