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Topic: The weird world of trading card opening videos on Youtube

Anonymous A started this discussion 3 weeks ago #126,124

I'm one of those losers who watches videos of people opening old school Yu-Gi-Oh! cards to relive my childhood in a pathetic attempt to escape the constant existential dread of modern adult life and I've noticed a strange trend. I assume it also exists for other trading cards like Pokemon and Magic, but I've never really delved into those.

People will pay Youtubers to open their vintage sealed products.

This baffles me. Especially with Yu-Gi-Oh!, where loose cards are generally valueless outside of a few rare exceptions. In the vast majority of cases, vintage Yu-Gi-Oh! stuff is worth FAR more sealed. A Youtuber opening sealed product, I get it, it's good content that helps them grow their channel, essentially making it an investment that could (and often does) pay for the cost of the product and then some. A regular guy like me, I also get it, opening old packs like you're a kid can be a lot of fun. If you've got the money for it, it's a fun way to relive childhood memories.

So why in the ass do people send Youtubers sealed product -- or worse, buy sealed product from their overpriced e-celeb stores -- and have them open it for a video? 90% of the time you're going to end up with cards that hold a tiny percentage of the value of the original unopened product and you didn't even get to experience the fun of opening it yourself!

Is the answer really as simple as gambling? The only way that you'll come close to matching the value of the sealed product is if you pull a chase card that also happens to get a high grade from a grading company like PSA. Submitting cards to such services is expensive, deepening the cost of the cards, and getting high grades is very difficult, even from pack-fresh cards. Are people such degenerate gamblers that they'll have a Youtuber open a $5000 box of cards in the hopes that it contains a rare card that, if they're incredibly lucky and it grades well, will be worth maybe the cost of the box? The number of cards that approach that price point is very small.

Take this video for instance, where someone purchases a sealed 2003 Jinzo tin from this guy and wants him to open it for a video. These regularly sell on Ebay for $350-400, so on his store it was probably closer to $450-500. Here are the values of the notable cards (worth more than a few pennies) pulled from the tin in the video, based on current market prices from sources like TCGPlayer.
-Jinzo - $16
-Jam Breeding Machine - $1
-Nobleman of Crossout - $6
-Painful Choice - $3
-Robbin' Goblin - $1
-Pot of Greed - $5
Add up all the bulk for probably another ~$5.

This person paid $450-500 for $37 worth of cards.

Let's say best case scenario, every card above gets a 10 from PSA (except Jinzo because it was so beat up it'd be lucky to get an 8). It costs $25/card to be graded, plus $20 return shipping, and maybe $10 to ship to them if you cheap out, bringing up the total cost to $630-680. Here are the values based on recent sales:
-Jinzo PSA 8 - $75
-Jam Breeding Machine PSA 10 - no recorded sales but estimated $120
-Nobleman of Crossout PSA 10 - $150
-Painful Choice PSA 10 - $60
-Robbin' Goblin PSA 10 - no recorded sales but estimated $60
-Pot of Greed PSA 10 - $100

Adding in the price of the bulk it comes out to $570. This is absolute best case scenario because again, PSA grades very strictly and odds are maybe one or two of these would receive a 10, the rest being 8-9.

This puts the buyer $60-110 in the hole, and as the Youtuber stated, this is actually an above average tin in terms of the value of the cards pulled. So the buyer has to go through all the trouble of shipping these cards off to PSA, waiting months for them to be returned, only to hope for the best case scenario of losing $60-110 -- and that's an above average outcome?? And this is a low-stakes product, vintage booster boxes can be thousands of dollars with similar outcomes. All that for what, the privilege of a shoutout from a Youtuber?

I'm not complaining because it gives me stuff to watch, but I just can't think of why anyone would go about it this way.

Anonymous A (OP) double-posted this 3 weeks ago, 1 hour later[^] [v] #1,365,686

This same Youtuber will regularly sell individual packs from a sealed booster box to be opened live on stream. Here he is opening a 1st Edition Legacy of Darkness booster box, containing 36 packs that are sold to a variety of people. The last one sold on Ebay for $2150, so the packs were likely sold for somewhere around $60. I won't include shipping costs for PSA, assuming that the buyers would send in multiple cards together. How did each person do? Below are the notable cards from each pack, their raw prices, PSA 10 prices, and for added realism and to demonstrate the huge jump in price for the incredibly unlikely perfect grade, PSA 9 prices.

Person 1 - 1 pack $60 ($85 with grading)
-Dark Balter the Terrible - raw $10, PSA10 $150, PSA9 $40
Best case scenario made $65 (!!), likely lost $45

Person 2 - 5 packs $300 ($425 with grading)
-2x Bottomless Trap Hole - raw $5, PSA10 $70, PSA9 $43 (each)
-Second Coin Toss - raw $3, PSA10 $170, PSA9 $14
-Magic Reflector - raw $1, PSA10 $27, PSA9 $12
-The Warrior Returning Alive - raw $1, PSA10 $173, PSA9 $14
Best case scenario made $85 (!!), likely lost $299

Person 3 - 3 packs $180 ($255 with grading)
-Injection Fairy Lily - raw $75, PSA10 $1970, PSA9 $230
-Blast with Chain - raw $1, PSA10 $54, PSA9 $10
-Fiend Skull Dragon - raw $5, PSA10 $172, PSA9 $21
Best case scenario* made $1941, likely** made $6
IFL is this set's rarest card. Not only is a 10 very unlikely in general, but due to this card's extreme print defects even 9 is unlikely. It would be extremely lucky to get a 7, putting it at $80, a HUGE dip from the PSA10 and even PSA9 prices.
Actual best case scenario made $51, realistically lost $138

Person 4 - 2 packs $120 ($170 with grading)
-Twin Headed Behemoth - raw $5, PSA10 $96, PSA9 $20
-Royal Oppression - raw $10, PSA10 $150, PSA9 $50
Best case scenario made $76 (!!), likely lost $100

Person 5 - 1 pack $60 ($85 with grading)
-Susa Soldier - raw $1, PSA10 $133, PSA9 $23
Best case scenario made $48 (!!), likely lost $62

Person 6 - 3 packs $180 ($255 with grading)
-Blast with Chain - raw $1, PSA10 $54, PSA9 $10
-Freed the Matchless General - raw $5, PSA10 $350, PSA9 $70
-Second Coin Toss - raw $3, PSA10 $170, PSA9 $14
Best case scenario made $319 (!!!!), likely lost $161

Person 7 - 1 pack $60 ($85 with grading)
-Thunder Nyan Nyan - raw $2, PSA10 $125, PSA9 $11
Best case scenario made $40 (!!), likely lost $74

Person 8 - 2 packs $120 ($170 with grading)
-Reinforcement of the Army - raw $12, PSA10 $225, PSA9 $43
-After Genocide - raw $1, PSA10 $103, PSA9 $32
Best case scenario made $158 (!!!), likely lost $95

Person 9 - 5 packs $300 ($425 with grading)
-Array of Revealing Light - raw $1, PSA10 $92, PSA9 $9
-Luster Dragon - raw $5, PSA10 $270, PSA9 $51
-Dragon's Bead - raw $1, PSA10 $20, PSA9 $10
-The A Forces - raw $1, PSA10 $44, PSA9 $14
-Shadow Tamer - raw $1, PSA10 $120, PSA9 $35
Best case scenario made $121 (!!!), likely lost $306

Person 10 - 1 pack $60 ($85 with grading)
-Luster Dragon - raw $5, PSA10 $270, PSA9 $51
Best case scenario made $185 (!!!), likely lost $34

Person 11 - 4 packs $240 ($340 with grading)
-Susa Soldier - raw $1, PSA10 $133, PSA9 $23
-Exiled Force - raw $7, PSA10 $200, PSA9 $40
-Fusion Sword Murasame Blade - raw $1, PSA10 $100, PSA9 $10
-Lesser Fiend - raw $1, PSA10 $108, PSA9 $10
Best case scenario made $201 (!!!!), likely lost $257

Person 12 - 2 packs $120 ($170 with grading)
-Royal Oppression - raw $10, PSA10 $150, PSA9 $50
-The Warrior Returning Alive - raw $1, PSA10 $173, PSA9 $14
Best case scenario made $153 (!!!), likely lost $106

Person 13 - 1 pack $60 ($85 with grading)
-Yamata Dragon - raw $24, PSA10 $292, PSA9 $78
Best case scenario made $232 (!!!!), likely lost $7

Person 14 - 3 packs $180 ($255 with grading)
-Lesser Fiend - raw $1, PSA10 $108, PSA9 $10
-Dragon's Bead - raw $1, PSA10 $20, PSA9 $10
-Opticlops - raw $1, PSA10 $115, PSA9 $10
Best case scenario lost $12, likely lost $225

Person 15 - 2 packs $120 ($170 with grading)
-Fatal Abacus - raw $1, PSA10 $120, PSA9 $11
-Array of Revealing Light - raw $1, PSA10 $92, PSA9 $9
Best case scenario made $42 (!!), likely lost $150

Of the 15 people who participated, if we look at the realistic value of their cards, literally every single one of them lost money. On average, buyers lost $137. These people all threw away an average of $137 just to watch a Youtuber open their cards.

You may be wondering about the "best case scenarios" listed above. I cannot stress enough how difficult it is to grade a card at 10. PSA maintains public population reports for all cards. Let's take the chase card of this set for example. PSA has graded a total 1164 first edition Fairy Injection Lilys. How many were graded a 10? 64. That's 5% of submitted cards. People generally don't submit cards in poor condition, meaning 95% of cards that appeared near mint were not given a 10.

Odds are, none of these cards will get a 10. Every single person involved in this lost money. And they didn't even get to open their own packs.

(Edited 37 seconds later.)

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