Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 2 years ago, 1 hour later, 2 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,279,896
@1,279,883 (Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU)
I was unemployed and completely out of money. They withheld 10% for taxes which covered the penalty but then you still have to pay income tax on it at the end of the year. It cut my tax refund in half.
@1,279,884 (Kook !!rcSrAtaAC)
About $1000. It was only around 5k that I took out. 500 withheld and it lowered my refund by about 500.
Anonymous E joined in and replied with this 2 years ago, 3 minutes later, 2 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,279,899
@previous (A)
you pay the income tax before it goes in or you pay it when it comes out, the 10% penalty isn't withheld, it's gone, paid. the cost of using your tax privileged account in a way the IRS didn't intend
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 2 years ago, 1 hour later, 3 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,279,906
@1,279,899 (E)
No, withheld is the correct term. Just like when your employer withholds tax money from your paycheck. I had the option to adjust the amount withheld when I cashed it out. Had I not set it to withhold 10% (the penalty for early withdrawal) then I would have gotten the full amount, and would have had to pay that 10% today when I filed my taxes for the year. Similarly, you can fill out a W-4 form for your employer instructing them to not withhold anything from your paycheck for taxes. You'll get your whole check with no taxes taken out, but you'll have a fuckhuge tax bill at the end of the year when you file taxes.
Anonymous A (OP) double-posted this 2 years ago, 3 minutes later, 4 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,279,908
@1,279,900 (E)
No, I don't have one. My employer has limited health insurance options and the only way for me to get one was to select a health insurance plan with a significantly higher out of pocket max than the one I chose. I'm having surgery this year so I expect to hit the out of pocket max, so in the end the amount I will save on healthcare this year will far outweigh any tax benefits from utilizing an HSA.
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU replied with this 2 years ago, 9 minutes later, 4 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,279,923
@1,279,896 (A)
Aw damn sorry man. Not sure if it was an option but you also might have been able to take a loan out for a lesser penalty + repayment over time. Hope you can start saving again.
> I was unemployed and completely out of money. They withheld 10% for taxes which covered the penalty but then you still have to pay income tax on it at the end of the year. It cut my tax refund in half. > > > About $1000. It was only around 5k that I took out. 500 withheld and it lowered my refund by about 500. > > > I wish lol
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 2 years ago, 3 minutes later, 4 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,279,934
@1,279,923 (Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU)
Yeah that probably would have been the better option. I didn't even look into it because my pessimism made me assume that being unemployed would make it difficult or impossible to get a loan. But perhaps not. And thanks bud, yeah I've been working since May and I'm building back up. My mother is being incredibly patient with me by letting me stay with her, so I'm saving a ton on rent which helps a lot with building a savings.
Half a mil would be great. I wouldn't quit working but the knowledge of knowing I had such a great cushion to fall back on would relieve a lot of stress.
My ultimate financial pipedream is to have 1.5 mil by the time I'm 50. I've done the math and figure I can quit working and live on the gains from it and probably die with some money left. I won't live a luxurious life but I'll have all my needs met.
Anonymous F replied with this 2 years ago, 32 minutes later, 5 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,279,945
@previous (A)
No idea how you did that calculation, but I hope you accounted and gave substantial room for one or more hyper-inflation events like we've seen in the past few years. Remember when a 1M was a vague retirement goal people were saying in the 90s? Not only have we had 30 years inflation beyond that, but tuition and health care costs have far outpaced wages or inflation. So 1.5M sounds a bit low to me, but maybe you'll find a way to make it work. Or maybe the economy will tank so hard between now and then we'll all have UBI to stave off instability and it will matter not much anyway.
Anonymous E replied with this 2 years ago, 25 minutes later, 6 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,279,948
@previous (F)
real inflation is somewhere between 10 and 20 percent annually. and the M2 money supply was increasing so fast during covid that they decided to stop reporting it and invented a new metric
Anonymous A (OP) replied with this 2 years ago, 36 minutes later, 6 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,279,958
@1,279,945 (F)
I used historical data for averages on stock market growth and inflation/CPI to ballpark how my money will grow and how my cost of living will increase. Increasing my cost of living as I age to account for health problems and assisted living and such. Death age guessed based on family history. It isn't perfect by any means and it's based purely on averages, which is fine for a long period of time but potentially unrealistic. 2mil is a more conservative goal but I doubt I'll hit either by 50 tbh.
Anonymous F replied with this 2 years ago, 13 minutes later, 6 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,279,961
@1,279,948 (E)
Sounds about right. A "basket of goods" or whatever they've come up with these days is a few grains of rice, some water, and a few microlitres of milk.
Anonymous E double-posted this 2 years ago, 10 minutes later, 8 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,279,973
@1,279,961 (F)
basically, and every year they find someone selling a dirtier less nutritious grain of rice and drop of milk so they can claim it's the same basket of goods.
Anonymous F replied with this 2 years ago, 7 minutes later, 10 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,279,984
@1,279,982 (E) > they did, go look at the M2 chart
lol. Why would he do that? He'd risk exposing himself to basic facts that contradict his deeply held religious beliefs. Complete non-starter.
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU replied with this 2 years ago, 12 minutes later, 10 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,279,987
@1,279,982 (E)
I can see where it's defined differently, but I don't see where they canceled it because the original M2 was too high. Are they cooking the books to artificially lower the M2 stat? If that were the case I'd expect the new M2 to be lower than the old one but for 2020 and 2021...it really isn't. For example, in the discontinued M2, the November 30 2020 M2 figure 18,866.4, and the new M2 November 2020 figure is 18,949.3, about 80 points higher. So I don't get the significance of moving from one to the other here. > i won't try to argue with you about inflation, i've seen how that goes. you are a strict CPI worshipper.
What's wrong with CPI and what stats are you using instead to calculate 10-20%?
Anonymous E replied with this 2 years ago, 7 minutes later, 10 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,279,988
@previous (Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU)
I guess you didn't notice that it was nearly a straight line going directly up when they discontinued it. And only after they redefined the M2 can we see it stop doing that, on the new chart.
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU replied with this 2 years ago, 19 minutes later, 11 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,279,996
@previous (E)
I've put my cursor where the last one ends and the trend on this chart is essentially identical to the original one (which I'll post next), and continues to climb afterwards. Eventually the M2 does stop growing but that seems right to me. After the original spike from the CARES act in March 2020, and then the ARP and IRA in Feb/March 2021, government spending was cut back to more conventional levels.
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU double-posted this 2 years ago, 1 minute later, 11 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,279,998
This is what the same starting point through the end point of the graph looks like for the original M2. It does shoot up but then also starts having a lot slower increase towards the last couple months.
Anonymous F replied with this 2 years ago, 1 minute later, 11 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,280,002
@1,279,996 (Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU) > Eventually the M2 does stop growing but that seems right to me.
Should've just posted this sentence only as it's the core of your whole argument.
Anonymous E replied with this 2 years ago, 2 minutes later, 11 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,280,004
@1,279,996 (Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU)
you've got the wrong chart there, show us again with the more granular data on the chart based on the weekly reports. and could you use a wider monitor while you're at it? jesus
Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU replied with this 2 years ago, 18 minutes later, 11 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,280,014
@1,280,002 (F)
The argument I'm making is that the new M2 was not created because the Fed was worried the old M2 would somehow make them look bad by being too high, or whatever. Separately, M2 shrinking because government stimulus went down and interest rates went up seems pretty reasonable to me. @previous (E)
It's literally the 2 indicies you linked lol. If it's wrong please feel free to link the correct one, or screenshot it yourself on your own monitor so it looks the way you want it.
Anonymous E replied with this 2 years ago, 5 minutes later, 11 hours after the original post[^][v]#1,280,016
@previous (Fake anon !ZkUt8arUCU)
good idea, maybe if we display it on a 2048:9 monitor we can make it look like the money supply has never changed in the entire history of the federal reserve. but we should still use the weekly data.